Can the world handle a climate that exceeds the far-reaching
excesses of 2022 when the entire world turned upside down with
unprecedented flooding, fires, and drought?
NOAA and climate researchers in Germany and China believe an El
Nio, starting in 2023-24, is the works. El Nios equate to more heat
throughout the planet.
Buckle-up! El Nio could increase ocean temps by 2-to-4
Fahrenheit, impacting the planets entire climate system, and its
coming on top of the whackiest, hottest, boldest climate year
(2022) in recorded history as paradoxically La Nia in 2022, which
is supposed to help cool the planet, didnt help!
In 2022, the planet set heat records, drying up major commercial
waterways (Po, Danube, Rhine), extreme severe drought necessitated
water delivery by trucks (France, Italy, Chile), fires burned down
entire towns (California), as record heat killed thousands (India).
None of 2022s record-setting fires, heat, floods, and droughts were
normal. In fact, it was especially abnormal, happening in the face
of a La Nia, which is part of the El Nio-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) climate pattern when the sea surface temperature across
the eastern equatorial part of the central Pacific Ocean is
typically lower (cooler) by 3 to 5C (5.4 to 9F). But a cool La Nia
didnt do the job!
Now an El Nio (warmer-to-hotter) event is on
tap for some time in 2023/24, likely lasting 2-5 years. The
ramifications will be worldwide. According to Prof Bill McGuire, at
University College London, UK: When [El Nio arrives], the extreme
weather that has rampaged across our planet in 2021 and 2022 will
pale into insignificance. (Source: El Nio Is Comingand the World
Isnt Prepared, Wired, Dec. 24, 2022)
El Nio could very easily provide a preview of
life at 1.5C, which is widely considered a line-in-the-sand not to
be crossed before triggering tipping points thatll far exceed the
challenges of a record-setting hot year in 2022. The last El Nio in
2016 was the hottest year ever recorded, but not surprisingly, the
oceans ever since then have accumulated much more heat over these
past 6 years, now with enough to make 2016 look tame. This next El
Nio could be a gut-punch, and the world is not prepared, not even
close.
NOAA believes the odds favor El Nio starting
this year. Researchers in Germany and China have suggested it could
be a strong one. As a result, climate scientists are worried about
a more-powerful-than-ever strain on sensitive ecosystems like the
Great Barrier Reef and the Amazon rainforest, especially as they
are already in a fragile state.
The risks are big: Its very likely that the
next big El Nio could take us over 1.5C, according to Prof Adam
Scaife, the head of long-range prediction at the UK Met Office. The
probability of having the first year at 1.5C in the next
five-ye...