Dr Paul Nolan is an independent researcher
based in Belfast. He writes on conflict societies, social trends
and demography.
The publication of the
Census 21 data last year proved to be a watershed moment for
Northern Ireland. It showed that on the centenary of the state, a
state established to provide the security of built-in majority for
unionists, the Catholic population had become larger than the
Protestant population.
On 31 May NISRA released a new cache of data which shows how
this dynamic between the two communities is likely to take shape in
the future. There are of course other identities now in play,
adding complexity and unpredictability to the mix, but the main
outlines are plain to see.
The census data was collected on one particular day, 21 March
2021, and is therefore a snapshot in time, a frozen moment. To turn
that snapshot into a moving picture we need to see how religious
identities are distributed across the age cohorts; this allows us
to see the patterns of growth and decline. The picture that emerges
from the new data is a stark one.
While the overall total for those from a Protestant background
is 43.5%, there is a tapering effect as we move down the age
cohorts from the oldest to the youngest. Above the age of 65 the
Protestant share is 59.2% while the Catholic share is 37.9% (not a
huge advance on the 34% it comprised in the first ever Northern
Ireland census in 1926).
At the other end of the age spectrum the ratios are transformed.
In the 0-14 age cohort Catholics make up 48.7% of the population
while Protestants make up just 32.5%. Where is the hinge point?
Because the age cohorts are very broad we can only say with
certainty that it occurs somewhere in the 40-64 bracket, but
extrapolating from the 2011 figures and projecting forward it is
likely that the break point is around the age of 48 or 50.
Above that age Protestants make up the larger population; below
that age Catholics make up the larger population.
The momentum shown in these figures is broadly consistent with
the annual Department of Education School Census which shows that
in the 2022/23 intake Catholics make up 50% of the pupil population
while Protestants and Others make up the remaining 50%.
Differences in the way in which NISRA and the Department of
Education tally up the Other Christian category make it difficult
to make exact comparisons (NISRA gives discrete figures for this
category but brackets them with Protestants, while the School
Census blends them with Others).
The general picture however is clear: over the past decade the
Catholic school pupil numbers have consistently hovered around 50%
very close in fact to t......