A few days ago the Northern Ireland Affairs Committee of the
House of Commons was told that for some communities here, the
expected peace dividend from the Good Friday Agreement never
arrived.
Tim Attwood of the John and Pat Hume Foundation reported on its
recent Peace Summit. One of the young people said, The conflict was
not the problem; the peace is, because, in so many places, they do
not see the dividend. Some working-class people in parts of Belfast
or Derry do not see the dividend. Where are the jobs? Where is the
investment that gives them the hope for the future?
A couple of years ago, the Derry University Group lobbyists for
university expansion in the city published research from accountant
Cormac Duffy which concluded that, in real terms, while the Belfast
economy grew by 14% since the Good Friday Agreement, Derrys economy
contracted by 7%. Those figures are rejected, both by the
independent FactCheckNI and by Derry City and Strabane District
Council. Yet the conclusions resonated in Derry, where there is
resentment and a feeling of being left behind.
Duffys conclusion was based on comparing Gross Value Added in
the two cities. But, as the author himself recognised, those
statistics are distorted by the commuting nature of the Belfast
economy, with many of the best paying jobs in the capital taken by
people who live in Lisburn, Bangor and elsewhere.
The unemployment rate provides an alternative measure of
progress. At the time of the Good Friday Agreement, the
unemployment rate in the Foyle constituency was 15.2% and the male
unemployment rate 20.7%. This was the 7th worst in the UK, behind
Belfast West and several deprived areas of England. Today the
claimant count rate in Foyle is 5.6% and 6.9% for men.
The UK rate in 1998 was 6.3%, today it is 3.9%. In 1998, the
Foyle rate was around 9% higher than that of the UK average. Today
it is 1.7% higher. So measured by official unemployment rates,
Derry has gained a peace dividend.
Yet, Derry continues to lag behind the rest of the UK in
employment rate and wealth generation. While the UK had an
employment rate of 75% at the end of 2021, it was just 65% in the
Derry and Strabane council area. And the levels of deprivation in
the city (as in parts of Belfast) continue to be disgraceful, 25
years on from a peace accord that might have been expected to
resolve most of our societys challenges.
Some 38% of the population in Derry and Strabane are classed as
income deprived, compared to the NI figure of 25%. Pay in Derry and
Strabane is 9% below the NI median, while disposable income per
head is 11% below the NI average. More positively, the council
points to official statistics indicating that both Derry and
Belfast have been catching up with the rest of the UK in terms of
median pay, and also that Derry has been catching up with
Belfast.
But official statistics also reveal that more than half of
children growing up in Derr...