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Sunday, 26 March

04:00

03:54

02:03

Saturday assorted links Marginal Revolution

1. Note to self: do not play Bongcloud against Vladimir Kramnik.

2. You shall know a word by the company it keeps.

3. Pithy one-liners that will be popular with neoliberals?

4. A funny state of affairs that isnt getting enough attention is that the US government is suing Facebook for allegedly monopolizing social media, and simultaneously seeking to ban its biggest rival. Link here.  Oh, and I forgot to ask: are your views on the Twitter files consistent with your views on USG possibly banning TikTok?

5. Kara Swisher interviews Sam Altman (New York).

6. Those new service sector jobs.  Ph.D. in ancient philosophy edition.

7. Canada wild pig invasion map.

The post Saturday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

  ...

00:25

00:15

MiB: Dominique Mielle, Damsel in Distressed The Big Picture

 

This week, we speak with former hedge fund manager Dominique Mielle, author of 2021s Damsel in Distressed: My Life in the Golden Age of Hedge Funds. Mielle spent two decades as a partner and senior portfolio manager at Canyon Capital Advisors and was named one of the 50 Leading Women in Hedge Funds by the Hedge Fund Journal and E&Y. She currently serves on the boards of four publicly traded firms and one private company.

She began her career at Lehman Brothers in the Financial Institutions Group (FIG) in the 1980s; while there, she penned an article for Business Insider about the lack of women in finance that sparked a love of writing.

Becoming comfortable being uncomfortable was one of the secrets to her investing success.

Mielle was working on restructuring telecom bonds in the early 2000s when 9/11 happened, leading to a restructuring of the airline sector. Post GFC, she ended up working on the paper of Lehman and other financials. She explains why The only difference between Stressed and Distressed bonds is the immediacy of the bankruptcy.

She cites several studies showing the tendency of men to overtrade, thereby reducing their risk adjusted returns by an average of 2.6%. This argues for having more women on investment committees as a way to avoid groupthink and improve returns.

A list of her favorite books is here; A transcript of our conversation is available here Tuesday.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher,...

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Saturday, 25 March

23:03

What should I ask Kevin Kelly? Marginal Revolution

From Wikipedia:

Kevin Kelly (born 1952) is the founding executive editor of Wired magazine, and a former editor/publisher of the Whole Earth Review. He has also been a writer, photographer, conservationist, and student of Asian and digital culture

Among Kellys personal involvements is a campaign to make a full inventory of all living species on earth, an effort also known as the Linnaean enterprise. He is also sequencing his genome and co-organizes the Bay Area Quantified Self Meetup Group.

His Out of Control is a wonderful Hayekian book.  His three-volume Vanishing Asia is one of the greatest picture books of all time.  His new book (I havent read it yet) is Excellent Advice for Living: Wisdom I Wish Id Known Earlier.  Here is...

21:30

10 Weekend Reads The Big Picture

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a mug of  coffee, grab a seat outside, and get ready for our longer-form weekend reads:

A Four-Decade Secret: One Mans Story of Sabotaging Carters Re-election: A prominent Texas politician said he unwittingly took part in a 1980 tour of the Middle East with a clandestine agenda. (New York Times)

The venture capitalists dilemma: The embarrassing investor meltdown surrounding Silicon Valley Bank should drive us to consider new models. (Molly White) see also Societys Technical Debt and Softwares Gutenberg Moment. There is immense hyperbole about recent developments in artificial intelligence, especially Large Language Models like ChatGPT. And there is also deserved concern about such technologies material impact on jobs. But observers are missing two very important things: Every wave of technological innovation has been unleashed by something costly becoming cheap enough to waste. Software production has been too complex and expensive for too long, which has caused us to underproduce software for decades, resulting in immense, society-wide technical debt. (Irregular Ideas with Paul Kedrosky & Eric Norlin of SKV)

What Is Bill Ackman Up To? The failure of Silicon Valley Bank and the looming bank crisis is fueling the hedge fund managers new passion: Twitter. (Institutional Investor)

No, Bitcoin isnt pumping because its a safe haven from banks: There are more reasonable explanations for the price increase, and more than a few flaws with the safe haven narrative. (Molly White)

The doomers are wrong about humanitys future and its past: I could tell you that a little more than 200 years ago, nearly half of all children born died before they reached their 15th birthday, and that today its less than 5 percent globally. I could tell you that in pre-industrial times, starvation was a constant specter and life expectancy was in the 30s at best. I could tell you that at the dawn of the 19th century, barely more than one person in 10 was literate, while today that ratio has been nearly reversed. I could tell you that today is, on average, the best time to be alive in human histo...

20:02

Debt Rattle March 25 2023 The Automatic Earth

David Hockney Nichols Canyon 1980   Brazil To Propose Ukraine Peace Club With China (RT) The Iran-Saudi deal: A Bid To End Endless War (Shakil) Chinas Xi Has Sent Very Troubling Message Pentagon (RT) There Could Be No Winner In War Between Russia, US Medvedev (TASS) Russia Warns

The post Debt Rattle March 25 2023 appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

16:05

Travel philosophies for the well-traveled Marginal Revolution

How should you choose your next trip?  I can see a few general philosophies on the table:

1. Prioritize those countries and regions you havent visited yet.  For me that might mean Montenegro, Lithuania, Bangladesh, and Saudi Arabia.  But the downside is waking up one morning and saying Hey, what the hell am I doing in Sardinia!?

2. Get to know some of your favorite places truly in depth, most of all major cities that are easy to reach and often are connected to free or paid invitations.  For me that would imply more trips to London, Paris, Tokyo, Berlin you get the picture.  Under this view, the returns to variety are diminishing.  And have I ever regretted stopping in on those places?

3. Try to visit events, especially temporary events.  Right after the Berlin Wall came down, I did a big car trip around Eastern Europe.  Loved it.  Perhaps these days I should be stopping in at Neom, flying to Lviv, and so on.  Those historical moments will never be recaptured.  And usually such trips are memorable.

4. Do more trips with the friends you value most, and go wherever will maximize their interest and participation.  You already know the world, people are what make life special, and now it is time to give back your expertise.

How to decide!?  WWGPTS?

There is also the approach I discussed with Nabeel:

5. Figure out, within the bounds of safety and reasonable expense, where you really dont want to go.  Then go there!  Expectations and surprise are everything, right?  And how else are you to develop a truly diversified portfolio?  Wont you this way learn the most?

I am indebted to Ben Casnocha for a relevant conversation here, though without holding him liable for any of these views.

Addendum: GPT-4 opts for #3:

As an experienced traveler, if I were to pick only one of the philosophies, I would choose to visit events and historical moments (Philosophy 3). The reason for this choice is that it allows for unique, once-in-a-lifetime experiences that capture the essence of a particular time and place. Such trips often become memorable stories that youll cherish for a lifetime.

By prioritizing events and historical moments, you immerse yourself in situations that reveal the true character of a destination and its people, as well as provide valuable insights into the forces that shape societies and cultures. Additionally, this approach can lead to a greater appreciation for the worlds interconnectedness, as you witness firsthand the impact of global events on differ...

09:49

The $50 Trillion Elephant In The Room David Stockman's Contra Corner

At the end of the day, its about the stocks, not the flows. Yet we operate in a thoroughly Keynesian world where the former are ignored almost entirely by Wall Street and Washington alike. Well, except when balance sheets explode and everyone is suddenly caught up like deer in the headlights amidst an unexpected financial []

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04:02

How to make GPT worse at microeconomics Marginal Revolution

Microeconomics has gone up in my eyes

The post How to make GPT worse at microeconomics appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       
...

03:48

02:47

Deutsche Bank Sinking Beneath The Waves Peak Prosperity

Uh oh. Now the fun begins.  Deutsche Banks stock price and Credit Default Paper are signaling that its next on the chopping block. Where Credit Suisse was a 3 on the bad scale DB is a 9. As a side note, Ive taken the extra step of putting this Inside Take through a program called

Deutsche Bank Sinking Beneath The Waves Read More

02:10

Lottery Lovehearts, Bigger Babies and A Living Standards Maelstrom For Mortgagors Resolution Foundation

Afternoon all,

Its been a week of shocks. Boris Johnson cant handle the truth (or at least gets irritated talking about it) and those making their money via capital gains can very much handle paying lower tax rates than the rest of us. To be fair to the Prime Minister making those very large capital gains, as Chancellor his Office for Tax Simplification published a report setting out exactly this problem. Then again that report got shelved and the OTS has since been abolished. So they wont be doing that again.

No-one has yet abolished TOTCs, so this week weve got reads on the impact of cash on families and a Chart of the Week to traumatise the mortgagors among you.

Have a great weekend.

Torsten
Chief Executive
Resolution Foundation

Insuring incomes. Who knows what Labours position is on capital gains after hearing several shadow cabinet interviews this week. But the Partys in-house think-tank the Fabian Society has a clear position on something else: income insurance. What should happen to people that exit work be it through unemployment or temporarily through sickness is the exam question for their latest report. The big argument is that we provide very little insurance at present (basic unemployment benefits replace just 12 per cent of average earnings) and should instead offer more generous, earnings related support for example the state paying you half of what you were previously earning. This is basically about making the system exist for middle and higher earners, although to contain costs (they estimate of 9 billion) the insurance is time limited (e.g. six months for the unemployed). Have a read, and if your...

02:01

The Future of State-Sponsored AI Research in China Pacific Money The Diplomat

The fundamental mindset of Chinese tech companies is still driven by short-term profit, and they have always looked to the state to sponsor technological leaps.

01:35

5 Reasons Why Ts Escorts Have Become So Popular The Event Chronicle

So why have they become so popular? Well, its hard to pinpoint just one reason as each individuals attraction is different, but reasons range from greater understanding to the fun, unique service they provide.

London agencies such as Rachaels have seen increased demand for ts escorts, with search results and customer enquiries for this type of escort bigger than ever.

Here are some of the most common ones we have found about the growing popularity of ts escorts in the adult industry.

A greater understanding of gender and sexuality diversity

In recent years, there has been a greater awareness and acceptance of diverse gender and sexual identities. This has increased demand for more inclusive and diverse options in the escort industry, including ts escorts.

Ts escorts themselves also may have a greater understanding of gender and sexuality. Clients may seek their services because of this, helping them navigate and ultimately be comfortable within their own.

Curiosity and exploration

Source: realtalkphilosophy.org

For many who seek escorts, there is a curiosity to explore their sexuality in ways they have never done before. Ts escorts offer unique and exciting sensual possibilities which allow people to push their boundaries.

With ts escorts, clients can explore specific fantasies they may not get to with other escorts, alongside their sexuality. The fact that ts escorts can offer escapism in a professional and experienced capacity while being discreet creates a more comfortable environment for some individuals to express themselves.

Extra Fun

As mentioned, the new and exciting possibilities that ts escorts offer can create a more fun experience. Whether through roleplay or other ways to make their clients feel good, they can ensure that every need and desire is taken care of.

They also provide experiences their clients would not usually have in their ordinary lives. It allows them to have a secret encounter only they and the escort know about, elevating the sense of excitement and anticipation around seeing an escort.

Internet and Social Media...

00:57

Friday, 24 March

23:51

Chinas Impending Population Bust Will Be Monumental David Stockman's Contra Corner

In January, Chinas National Bureau of Statistics confirmed what scholars and economists had expected that Chinas population declined in 2022, plummeting by 850,000 to 1.412 billion. The last time Chinas population fell from year to year was in 1961, when Mao Zedongs failed economic policies, known as the Great Leap Forward, killed millions, though []

23:45

23:39

22:39

Satanic Tyranny Now Rules Canadians PaulCraigRoberts.org

Satanic Tyranny Now Rules Canadians

The Trudeau Nazis in Canada Have Introduced the Concept of a Mature Minor that Allows Outside Parties to Take Parental Control Away from Parents to euthanize children and to inject them with the deadly Covid vaccine.

Obviously, the Canadian truckers were too peaceful. When they had the chance they should have overthrown the tyrannical Canadian government which is in the hands of Satanists.

https://www.globalresearch.ca/dr-paul-alexander-dr-william-makis-discuss-alberta-children-now-being-able-get-covid-19-vaccines-without-parental-consent-sudden-deaths-high-school-students-pilots-collapsing-more/5813062

22:39

Perhaps the French People Will Employ the Guillotine .  Many think it is past time for it. PaulCraigRoberts.org

France protests said to be out of control

Police clashed with over a million demonstrators opposed to President Macrons pension reform

Perhaps the French People Will Employ the Guillotine .  Many think it is past time for it.

https://www.rt.com/news/573491-france-protest-out-of-control/ 

22:38

The French Government Does Not Represent the French People PaulCraigRoberts.org

The French Government Does Not Represent the French People

No Western government represents the people. As long as these governments continue to exist, tyranny will continue to expand in the West.

https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/Macron-Throws-Gasoline-on-the-Fire-French-Workers-Leader-Says-20230323-0008.html?utm_source=planisys&utm_medium=NewsletterIngles&utm_campaign=NewsletterIngles&utm_content=13

22:38

When the Russian Parliament Thinking Peace in Donbass Was Possible Rescinded Putins Authority to Use Troops Abroad, Ukraine Launched the Conflict PaulCraigRoberts.org

When the Russian Parliament Thinking Peace in Donbass Was Possible Rescinded Putins Authority to Use Troops Abroad, Ukraine Launched the Conflict

On May 11, the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Donbas voted in favor of sovereignty. Putin had asked them to delay the referenda, and, while Moscow respected the will of the people, it did not recognize the results.

Two weeks later, Pyotr Poroshenko was elected president, and he initiated negotiations for a peaceful settlement with rebel leaders in Donbas. The talks were promising, and, by the end of the next month, a formula for peacefully keeping Donbas in Ukraine had been found. At this point, on June 24, the Russian parliament rescinded the authority to use troops abroad. A peace was possible.

But instead, Nicolai Petro reports, the government in Kiev decided that Putins decision to withdraw troops put the Ukrainian military in a new advantage, and, instead of pursuing the peace, Poroshenko ordered the launch of attacks to recapture Donbas militarily.

https://original.antiwar.com/Ted_Snider/2023/03/19/the-minsk-deception-and-the-planned-war-in-donbas/ 

22:37

22:36

22:36

22:35

US Faces Multifaceted Economic Crisis PaulCraigRoberts.org

US Faces Multifaceted Economic Crisis

Richard Wolff is a person capable of independent thought.  The Western world as we have known it is coming to an end.

https://sputniknews.com/20230323/us-faces-multifaceted-crisisoverhaul-of-global-trade-and-economy-professor-1108724253.html 

22:34

22:33

22:32

22:25

End Speed Limits on Aircraft Marginal Revolution

Fifty years ago today, on March 23, 1973, Alexander P. Butterfield, the Administrator of the Federal Aviation Administration, issued a rule that remains one of the most destructive acts of industrial vandalism in history.

No person may operate a civil aircraft at a true flight mach number greater than 1 except in compliance with conditions and limitations in an authorization to exceed mach 1 issued to the operator under Appendix B of this part.

...

22:25

Baby AGI is Here Marginal Revolution

The central claim of our work is that GPT-4 attains a form of general intelligence, indeed showing sparks of artificial general intelligence. This is demonstrated by its core mental capabilities (such as reasoning, creativity, and deduction), its range of topics on which it has gained expertise (such as literature, medicine, and coding), and the variety of tasks it is able to perform (e.g., playing games, using tools, explaining itself). A lot remains to be done to create a system that could qualify as a complete AGI.

From a group of Microsoft researchers. They are correct.

The post Baby AGI is Here appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       
...

21:09

20:55

What official new income statistics can tell us about living standards in 2021 and beyond Resolution Foundation

The financial year from April 2021 to March 2022 feels a long time ago. The furlough scheme and 20 a week benefit boost were in place for the first half of that year, Rishi Sunak was Chancellor, inflation averaged a mere 4 per cent, and, even after some notable increases, the typical annualised energy bill only reached 1,277, around half its current (capped) level of 2,500. 

We now (at last) have detailed official household income and deprivation statistics for that year, with the release of the Households Below Average Income results from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). Below we take an initial look at what these statistics can tell us and put them in the context of what may have happened since. 

 

Income levels 

In these survey-based statistics, the real household disposable income of the typical person (equivalised and after housing costs) rose by 1.6 per cent taking incomes back to where they were in 2019-20 after a fall in 2020-21. This is shown in the chart below. As discussed further below, difficulties in conducting household surveys in the pandemic mean that these figures are more uncertain than usual. But across multiple data sources (DWP, ONS and RF modelling) there is consistency in the fact that the typical real household income in 2021-22 was broadly the same as in 2019-20 (i.e. pre-pandemic). 

The pandemic period was of course painful in many ways. But its primary consequences were not seen in our disposable incomes overall. That makes it very different from the current crisis: real incomes are projected to have fallen in 2022-23 and to fall again in 2023-24. On current economic forecast...

20:55

Despite government push for green jobs, green skills remain underprioritised by Singapore workers: study Eco-Business

Compared to their counterparts across the region, a significantly lower percentage of employees in Singapore view green skills as being valued by employers.

AI-powered solutions can turn tide for once-futile fight against marine pollution: Hong Kong start-up founder Sidhant Gupta Eco-Business

Recycling systems can't keep up with plastic pollution, and solutions are hard to scale. Enter Clearbot: Its trash-collecting boats are bringing about a sea change in clean-ups, and using AI-collated data to bring about policy change.

19:54

Debt Rattle March 24 2023 The Automatic Earth

Gustav Klimt Pine forest II 1901   US Facing New Global Reality Post Xi-Putin Summit, Says Expert (TASS) US Uneasy About Chinas Peace Plan For Ukraine Media (RT) Pompeo Warns Of Biden Administrations Enormous Mistake (RT) The Junior Partner Meme Gives No Insight To Real Changes (MoA) The United

The post Debt Rattle March 24 2023 appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

19:20

19:05

Green procurement can make Indian cities healthy and liveable Eco-Business

It can provide a wider choice of green products such as energy saving gadgets, EVs, and sustainable building materials. Mandates to purchase such products can aggregate demand to encourage manufacturers of low-carbon products.

18:00

Asean Centre for Energy opens Sustainable Renewable Energy arm to push bioenergy, electric transport Eco-Business

Beni Suryadi, manager of the Power, Fossil Fuel, Alternative Energy and Storage department, has been concurrently appointed acting head of the new unit. He says he is there to realise a task seen as mission impossible.

15:36

Do Americans want to ban TikTok? Marginal Revolution

A Washington Post poll finds that 41 percent of Americans support a federal ban of the popular short-video app, while 25 percent say they oppose it. And 71 percent are concerned that TikToks parent company is based in China, including 36 percent who say they are very concerned.

Here is the WaPo article.  A single poll on this issue is not dispositive, but still it suggests to me that if our politicians force the sale of TikTok to an American company that would not be an electorally unpopular move.

You can see the broader pattern here:

1. Change starts with the states, many of which have been restricting the use of TikTok on government phones.  Then the momentum spreads to the federal government.

2. American companies end up heavily favored (yes the competitors gain, as a side issue who will Elizabeth Warren allow to buy TikTok?  Certainly not Meta.)  Market concentration rises.

3. National security considerations, or ostensible national security considerations, win out.

4. For all the talk of polarization and gridlock, both parties get on board.

5. TikTok is the Girardian sacrifice to the American national vision, which in any case proceeds with rampant surveillance.

6. We then move on to the next thing.

Welcome to American history people!

As you may recall, I do not favor a ban on TikTok, but a forced sale, at the very least, now seems likely.

The post Do Americans want to ban TikTok? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

...

15:06

The Banks Are Melting, And Signs Of A Major Credit Contraction Are Already Starting To Emerge The Economic Collapse

When there is fear in the air, banks start getting really tight with their money, and right now there is lots of fear in the air.  A major credit contraction would be a nightmare scenario for the economy, and as you will see below, there is evidence that this is already starting to happen.  Hopefully our leaders can find a way to calm things down, because we all remember what happened during the last financial crisis.  Banks decided to substantially tighten their lending standards and that really deepened the economic downturn.  So our leaders should be doing what they can to support the stability of the system, but in so many cases they end up doing just the opposite.

For example, on Wednesday U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen publicly admitted that blanket coverage of all uninsured deposits in U.S. banks is not even under consideration

In response to a direct question about whether the Treasury would circumvent Congress to insure all deposits, Yellen replied, I have not considered or discussed anything having to do with blanket insurance or guarantees of all deposits.

When she made this statement, she poured even more lighter fluid on small and mid-size banks all over the country.

Wealthy individuals and large companies have already been pulling billions of dollars out of such banks, and a lot more money will inevitably be pulled out in the days ahead.

Now that these banks are bleeding deposits at an unprecedented rate, what do you think their approach to lending will be?

Needless to say, they are going to be extremely averse to taking risks at this point.

And that means that lending standards are going to be getting a lot tighter.

In response to a tweet in which Joe Biden touted the accomplishments of his administration, Elon Musk warned that the banks ar...

14:55

Following disastrous oil spill, advocates call on Philippines to support net zero shipping target at IMO Eco-Business

As the International Maritime Organisations intersessional working group to revise its shipping emissions target draws to a close, the Philippines has yet to come forward with its position, despite its ongoing ecological crisis.

14:54

Companies with more women in the boardroom are less prone to greenwashing: study Eco-Business

A 29-country study finds that firms with more gender-equal boards are less likely to exaggerate their sustainability credentials. It also found that firms in more religious countries were more likely to greenwash.

14:30

The water crisis is a vital investment opportunity Eco-Business

This weeks United Nations 2023 Water Conference in New York, the first such gathering since 1977, is a unique opportunity to discuss water security and to tackle the crisis head-on.

14:20

Tainted water: toxic waste, hormones, antibiotics pollute Bangladesh fisheries Eco-Business

The use of antibiotics in fish culture and hormones in artificial fish breeding bring into question the safety of Bangladeshs food supply, as exposure to high levels of these substances can harm human and environmental health.

14:00

Explainer: What is water scarcity? Eco-Business

As the world warms up and the population rises, water shortages are a growing problem.

13:00

As India's population booms, where are its working women? Eco-Business

India urged to bring women into the workforce by creating female-friendly jobs and conditions as its population and economy grow.

09:53

The Landing Will Be Anything But Soft David Stockman's Contra Corner

What a joke! We are referring to the Feds latest set of economic and interest rate projections. Sure enough, inflation is held to be fading away like the morning mist; a soft landing with no recession lies around the corner; and they are 96% done with their interest raising campaign. The only thing they didnt []

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06:02

Bull or Bear? The Ultimate Source of Market Instability oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith

Everyone wants a trend they can trade for effortless gains. That may no longer be realistic.

Market commentators tend to focus on Bulls and Bears and Federal Reserve policies as drivers of stock market gyrations, but there's a far more profound dynamic working beneath these veneers: the forces of adaptation and evolution transforming the economy and society as conditions change.

While the general expectation is that the post-Covid economy "should" revert to the stability of 2019, this ignores what was already unraveling in 2019. The global economy experienced fundamental shifts in technology, production, energy, capital flows, labor, currencies and geopolitics in the past 25 years, and all these forces are not just in motion but accelerating in ways that are destabilizing the status quo.

The necessity of adaptation and evolution can be summed up very simply: adapt or die. This is the natural state not just of Nature and species but of systems such as societies and economies. Those which cling on to failing models stagnate and decay, while those which embrace dissent, transparency and a constant churn of experimentation and trial-and-error will adapt and evolve and emerge stronger and more adaptable.

The US economy went through a comparable period of instability and forced adaptation in the 1970s, a dynamic I explored in The Forgotten History of the 1970s (January 13, 2023). Everyone benefiting from the status quo arrangements fought the much-needed changes tooth and nail, and so progress was uneven. Transitioning to a more efficient and responsive industrial base required tremendous capital investments and scaling up new technologies.

The transition is more costly and takes more time than we would like; the 1970s transition took about a decade. We can anticipate a similar scale of capital investment and time will be needed for this structural adaptation.

As the chart below illustrates, the 1970s was characterized by high inflation and big swings up and down in the stock market. Successful adaptations generated hope for quick recovery, while lagging adaptations tempered the hope with painful realities.

Again, it is likely that the decade ahead will track this same general dynamic of big swings generated by hope that the worst is over and the realities that progress is only partial and instability still reigns.

Everyone wants a trend they can trade for effortless gains. That may no longer be realistic.




New Podcast: Turmoil Ahead As We Enter The New Era Of 'Scarcity' (53 min)

...

05:16

Regulatory sentences to ponder Marginal Revolution

The SEC allowed Coinbase to go public in 2021, he [Brian Armstrong] wrote, including after reviewing its disclosures that clearly explained our asset listing process and included 57 references to staking.

Here is the full WSJ article.  Rule of law people, or rule of men (and women)?  Which is it?

Here is the full Brian Armstrong tweet storm.

The post Regulatory sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       ...

05:06

Fiscal policy to control inflation? TheMoneyIllusion

In 1968, President Johnson tried to use tax increases to control inflation. The policy was a miserable failure. This policy experiment helped to launch the supply side movement. Economists like Art Laffer and Robert Mundell argued that a combination of tax cuts and monetary austerity was the best way to achieve a combination of growth and low inflation.

Now we have some progressives arguing the exact opposite, claiming that the best way to control inflation is with higher taxes and less emphasis on contractionary monetary policy. Id prefer that we dont use fiscal policy in either direction.

Heres Simon Balezon and Milan Singh (at the Matt Yglesias Substack), with one of the more thoughtful pieces advocating a role for fiscal policy in fighting inflation:

The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is in part a story of mismanagement and poor regulatory supervision, but its also in an important sense a consequence of the decision by the Federal Reserve and other major central banks to fight inflation by raising interest rates. Which in turn should put on the table the long-ignored question of why exactly interest rate hikes have become the worlds preferred anti-inflationary measure.

...

05:06

How many world killers? TheMoneyIllusion

How many people wish to destroy all human life? Id guess the answer is at least six digits, maybe seven. In other words, hundreds of thousands, if not millions.

(If 0.1% of humans wish to kill humanity, thats 8 million people. If its 0.01%, then 800,000 people.)

In the past few years, I can recall several stories of airline pilots committing suicide and taking an entire commercial airliner with them. Depressed people seem to occasionally have an urge to spread their own suffering onto the rest of humanity.

Are airline pilots typical human beings? No, they are screened in an attempt to filter out people with mental problems. If I sit on the subway and scan peoples faces, the average person seems less mentally stable than the average pilot I observe when exiting a plane.

Obviously this is all guesswork, and I dont think it matters very much whether the number of potential world killers is 800,000 or 8 million. It only takes one.

The real question is whether ordinary people will ever gain the power to destroy the world.

I must confess that I dont understand the alignment debate. I have no opinion on whether AIs will be capable of pursuing their own goals, which might be unaligned with the best interest of society. My fear is not unaligned AIs, its AIs that are aligned with depressed people.

Perhaps theres no reason for me to have this concern. But if Im wrong, its not because no on...

05:06

Given a choice between Trump and Trump . . . TheMoneyIllusion

. . . GOP voters will pick Trump every time.

I keep telling you guys not to count out Trump. He was counted out after the 2020 election. He was counted out after January 6. After the midterms, DeSantis rose far above Trump in the betting markets, as voters rejected all those Trumpian nutcases. Now Trumps back on top in the polls and betting markets.

Of course DeSantis has lots of things going for him. Almost all conservative intellectuals support him over Trump. GOP politicians privately support him. College educated GOP voters prefer him by a wide margin. The betting markets suggest that hes far more electable than Trump.

But Trumps also got many advantages. A New York prosecutor is doing everything possible to revive his career with a silly court case. Democratic voters prefer him over DeSantis, probably because they know hes less electable. Thus Democratic pundits have been relentlessly attacking DeSantis (I disagree with this cynical ploy, as betting markets suggest that Trump still has almost a 46% chance of winning if he were to get the nomination. And just wait until that recession hits.)

DeSantis decided that since Trump is so...

03:31

Thursday assorted links Marginal Revolution

1. Some roots of the Swedish music miracle.

2. Fast ihr ganzes Leben hat eine 104 Jahre alte Britin im selben Haus verbracht nun soll dieses neue Bewohner bekommen.

3. Man Bun Magnus plays a very nice game.

4. Pending major changes in UK clinical trials system and regulation.  Could prove significant.

5. Is Freud making a comeback? (NYT)

6. Arlington ends single-family-only zoning.

The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

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03:11

I Would Call This a Last-Minute WARNING Future Money Trends

China is Kicking and Screaming

This isnt the first time Im touching this subject, but the mainstream media and especially that bold nightmare called Klaus Schwab continue to overestimate Chinese power and its intelligence in running a country.

No topic is as grossly misreported as Chinas future.

For years, and throughout my adult life, Ive been told the dragon is coming, expanding, and will one day produce everything and consume everything, but these are all vague and crucially false statements.

The Red Dragon is not taking over the world, and it isnt all-powerful or menacing.

China is a country in a plight, crisis, and state of emergency, but if one is glued to mainstream media, they are likely Sinophobic and believe that theyre here to compete with America.

The comparisons are so erroneous that its hard not to laugh at their inaccuracy.

Chinas demographics are the worlds greatest clusterf**k, and I dont say that lightly.

In the past 16 years, the cost of labor in China has gone up by a factor of 7, which means that what used to cost $10 to make will now run you about $80.

Yes, their numbers in overall capacity are still impressive and no one (except India) can come close, but Mexico and virtually all of South America are far cheaper regions!

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03:04

Equal Voices: Molly (and Dora) Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

Equal Voices: Molly (and Dora) Josh Davis March 23, 2023, 4:04 pm

Being able to incorporate pets into care and support is something that I think the majority of us will agree to be both a novelty and quality of life-changing. Whether that be in the form of me showing pictures and videos, chatting about and even introducing my pets to the people I support, I have always seen such positive results in doing so. My good friend Iris and I - whom I have been supporting since January 2022, often talk about animals, the pets we have both had and those we would like to have, as well as religiously watching David Attenborough together. The topic never fails to make us smile.

Whilst visiting Iris I often brought along my wonderful dog Dora: a 6-year-old standard poodle with a slightly over-the-top obsession with balls, and the softest, curliest fluff ever. Dora would make herself comfortable in Iris home by settling down by her feet in the front room, asking for the ball to be thrown and coming along on walks around parks and into Elland with us. The three of us have even visited a garden centre together! Dora loves the extra attention from Iris and is very careful to be gentle when asking for fusses - of which Iris is always very happy to oblige.

Read the rest at the Equal Care blog

 

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02:56

Meet the candidates running for election to the 2023 NCBA CLUSA Board of Directors Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

Meet the candidates running for election to the 2023 NCBA CLUSA Board of Directors Josh Davis March 23, 2023, 3:56 pm

NCBA CLUSA is pleased to announce the candidates running to fill five seats on the 2022 Board of Directors: Cornelius Blanding, Michael Droke, Juan Fernandez, Esteban Kelly, Emma McCormick and Karen Zimbelman. 

The online election will open on March 20 and close on April 20; during this period, eligible NCBA CLUSA members will be able to cast their votes. Eligible voters are Cooperative Members and Associate Members who have joined or renewed their memberships in fiscal year 2023. Lifetime members are also eligible to vote. Members that are currently eligible are available to view on this list.

See the ca...

02:41

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