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Friday, 17 March

01:51

Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar The Automatic Earth

Jacob Lawrence Struggle: From the History of the American People, Panel 8 1954 Andrew Korybko: Eurasias geo-economic integration took a great leap forward as a result of the IranianSaudi rapprochement, which unlocks the Gulf Cooperation Councils (GCC) trade potential with Russia and China. Its wealthy members can now tap into two series of Iranian-transiting megaprojects

The post Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Will Deal A Deathblow To The Dollar appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

01:19

The Versatility of Aluminum Windows: Custom Designs and Colors to Match Your Style The Event Chronicle

Aluminum windows have become a popular choice for homeowners and architects because of their versatility in design and durability. They offer several benefits, including energy efficiency, low maintenance, and a sleek, modern appearance. However, what many people may not realize is that they are also highly customizable, allowing homeowners to create custom designs and colors to match their unique style and preferences.

Advantages of Aluminum Windows

Source: azuremagazine.com

One of the main advantages of aluminum windows is their flexibility in design. They can be made in various shapes and sizes, from traditional rectangular windows to circular, triangular, or even irregular shapes. This versatility allows homeowners to get creative with their window designs and create a unique look that complements the overall style of their homes. For example, if you have a contemporary home, you may opt for large, floor-to-ceiling aluminum windows with slim frames to create a minimalist, streamlined look. Alternatively, if you have a traditional or historic home, you may choose smaller, multi-paned aluminum windows with a more decorative frame design to match the period style of your home.

Another way to customize aluminum windows is by choosing the color of the frame. Aluminum frames can be powder-coated in virtually any color, allowing homeowners to match the windows to the color scheme of their homes exterior or interior. Whether you want to create a bold contrast or a subtle blend, there is a wide range of colors to choose from, including popular neutrals like white, black, and gray, as well as bold hues like red, blue, and green. Additionally, many manufacturers offer custom color-matching services, allowing you to create a truly unique shade that perfectly matches your homes color scheme.

When it comes to finishes, there are several options available, each offering a different look and feel. Anodized finishes provide a metallic appearance, making them a great choice for modern and...

01:17

Interesting New Historical Paper in the Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences The Past Speaks

Management journals, including the most prestigious and selective ones such as AMJ and SMJ, are increasingly receptive to papers that use historical data and methods. I spotted this interesting paper in Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences, a journal ranked CABS2, that use historical data to speak to debates in the field of International Business about so-called born global firms.

Schmidt, Heiko M., and Sandra Milena SantamariaAlvarez. Born global in 1847: International entrepreneurship at Siemens. Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences/Revue Canadienne des Sciences de lAdministration.

Paper abstract:

The early internationalization of new ventures has been described as a contemporary phenomenon enabled by globalization and digital technologies. However, todays multinational enterprise Siemens, founded in 1847, fits extant definitions of born globals. Based on this historical case, this study seeks to answer the question: What are enduring and contextually invariant aspects of early internationalization processes? An abductive analysis of the companys first 3 decades finds six relevant and emergent themes. We contribute to international entrepreneurship research by presenting evidence that early internationalization is not a new phenomenon, showing support for multiple extant findings, and providing new insights for otherwise underexplored themes. We also provide future research directions regarding personal-level processes in international new ventures based on the analyzed 30 years.

00:12

What to Look For in a Reliable and Trustworthy Car Removal Company The Event Chronicle

You may be thinking about hiring a vehicle removal service if you want to get rid of an old, damaged, or unwanted car. These businesses provide a simple and convenient way to get rid of your automobile, and many of them will even pay you cash for it. However, not all vehicle removal businesses are made equal, so its crucial to conduct research to find a reputable business that will offer you the best service. With the help of bestwaycarremoval.com.au well delve deeper into what to look for in a dependable and trustworthy car removal company in this piece.

Reputation

Source: timebusinessnews.com

One of the most crucial factors to consider when choosing a car removal company is its reputation. You want to work with a company that has a solid reputation in the industry, with positive reviews from previous clients. A reputable company will have a track record of providing reliable, efficient, and trustworthy services. You can research online for reviews and testimonials from past clients to get an idea of the companys reputation. You can also ask for references and contact them to inquire about their experience working with the company.

A reputable car removal company will also have proper licensing and insurance. They should have the necessary insurance to protect their clients in the event of any damages or accidents, and they should be registered by the appropriate authorities to operate in your area. Make sure to ask for proof of licensing and insurance before hiring a car removal company. A reputable company will have no issue providing you with the necessary documents to prove its legitimacy.

Experience and Expertise

Experience and expertise are essential factors to consider when choosing a car removal company. A business will be better equipped to handle various vehicles and...

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Thursday, 16 March

23:03

Does Putin Want Nuclear War? PaulCraigRoberts.org

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Does Putin Want Nuclear War?

Paul Craig Roberts

US senator wants nuclear war  Moscow

American politicians are inciting an apocalyptic conflict, Russias envoy has warned 

What is the point of these endless Russian complaints?  Will the Kremlin ever understand that it is the Kremlins failure to use sufficient force to terminate a conflict whose ever-widening character threatens to end in nuclear war?  Why does the Kremlin refuse to understand an obvious situation?  Where is the Russian Army?  

https://www.rt.com/russia/573046-antonov-graham-planes-threat/ 

How many times have senior Russian officials noted incidents that confirm US involvement in the Ukraine conflict?  Why does the Kremlin embarrass itself by pointing out incidents that it does nothing about?  The drone was obviously a provocation.  Washingtons intention was to produce a Russian response to a drone headed into Russian territory.  Will the drone incident be the excuse for sending F-16s to Ukraine?  https://www.rt.com/russia/573036-russia-us-drone-search/ 

The Kremlin is again sitting on its butt, as it did for 8 years from 2014 until 2022, while the West restores and upgrades Ukraines military capability.  Meanwhile, the Kremlin prepares more troubles for itself by refusing to acknowledge that it is at war, not conducting a limited military operation in Donbass.  The Kremlins inability to understand the dangers in an ever-widening war is inexplicable.

Why does the Kremlin expect Russians to fight a war that the Kremlin shows no signs of intention to win?  Soldiers dont want to die for the purpose of their government negotiating a settlement.  Has the Russian Army refused to fight a war that Putin has no intention of winning?

Precisely as I predicted from the beginning, the longer this conflict continues, the more involved Washington becomes.  The more Washington is involved, the more dangerous the conflict becomes....

23:01

PCR Interviewed by Larry Sparano on Bank Situation PaulCraigRoberts.org

PCR Interviewed by Larry Sparano on Bank Situation

To correct myself, this is the source of the banks derivative holdings: https://www.usbanklocations.com/bank-rank/derivatives.html 

 

22:56

Twenty years ago today Rachel Corrie, a 23 year old American woman was murdered by a Nazified Israeli soldier for protesting the demolition of a Palestinians home PaulCraigRoberts.org

March 16, 2023:  Twenty years ago today Rachel Corrie, a 23 year old American woman was murdered by a Nazified Israeli soldier for protesting the demolition of a Palestinians home.

Washington, of course, did nothing about it except increase its financial and military support of Israel.  Not even Israels attack on the USS Liberty which cost the US Navy 208 dead and wounded could bring Washington to retaliate by cutting even one dollar of the tribute US taxpayers are forced to pay Israel.

I dont understand why neoconservatives believe Americans who are routinely humiliated by Israel can be an exceptional and indispensable people.

https://mailchi.mp/ifamericansknew/rachel-corrie-18th-anniversary-4860531?e=094f852e25 

22:54

Leonardo Da Vinci, son of a white slave PaulCraigRoberts.org

Leonardo Da Vinci, son of a white slave

Woke museum curators who are on a tare labeling the collections in their hands racist statements by white artists are embarrassed by the revelation that Leonardo da Vinci was the son of a white slave mother.

As white slaves outnumbered black ones, what explains the neglect of white slaves and their descendants?  Why arent they deserving of reparations and racial privilege?

https://www.rt.com/news/573027-italy-da-vinci-caucasus-slave/ 

22:53

PaulCraigRoberts.org

Former Treasury Secretary and Harvard President Larry Summers adds his weight to the coverup of why the Silicon Valley Bank failed:  the bank borrowed short and invested long.

But what actually happened was the bank bought Treasury bonds during the period when the Fed was committed to low interest rates.  When the Fed switched to higher rates, the existing bonds lost value, and Silicon Valley was pushed into insolvency by the change in the Feds policy.  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silicon-valley-bank-committed-one-135059554.html

22:25

UK to Adopt Pharmaceutical Reciprocity! Marginal Revolution

More than twenty years ago I wrote:

If the United States and, say, Great Britain had drug-approval reciprocity, then drugs approved in Britain would gain immediate approval in the United States, and drugs approved in the United States would gain immediate approval in Great Britain. Some countries such as Australia and New Zealand already take into account U.S. approvals when making their own approval decisions. The U.S. government should establish reciprocity with countries that have a proven record of approving safe drugsincluding most west European countries, Canada, Japan, and Australia. Such an arrangement would reduce delay and eliminate duplication and wasted resources. By relieving itself of having to review drugs already approved in partner countries, the FDA could review and investigate NDAs more quickly and thoroughly.

Well, its happening! After Brexit, there were concerns that drugs would take longer to get approved in the UK because the EU was a much larger market. To address this, the UK introduced the reliance procedure which recognized the EU as a stringent regulator and guaranteed approval in the UK within 67 days for any drug approved in the EU. The Reliance Procedure essentially kept the UK in the pre-Brexit situation, and was supposed to be temporary. However, recognizing the logic of recognizing the EU, the UK is now saying that it will recognize other countries.

Our aim is to extend the countries whose assessments we will take account of, increasing routes to market in the UK. We will communicate who these additional regulators are and publish detailed guidance about this new framework in due course, including any transition arrangements for applications received under existing frameworks.

The UK is already participating in a mutual recognition agreement with the FDA over some cancer drugs. Therefore, it seems likely that the FDA will be among the regulatory authorities that the UK recognizes. If the UK does recognize the FDA, then we only need the FDA to recognize the UK for my scenario from more than 20 years ago to be fulfilled.

Its thus time to revisit the Lee-Cruz bill of 2015, which proposed the Result Act (I was an influence).

Reciprocity...

22:00

Dj Vu? 2023 is Not 2008 The Big Picture

 

Depositors heaved a sigh of relief when news broke Sunday that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation was going to make whole all of the accounts held at Silicon Valley Bank. Having full access to bank accounts meant those tech start-ups that make up much of SVBs depositors would be able to make their weekly payrolls. They were the lucky ones: SVBs equity investors were wiped out and senior bank management was fired.

This is how capitalism is supposed to work.

Those of you who sweated through the great financial crisis even if you were short Lehman Brothers and AIG experienced some dj vu this past weekend. How many of you thought, Here we go again.? While I cant guarantee you nothing untoward will occur, I can tell you this is not the subprime/securitized mortgage debacle that metastasized into the 2007-09s Great Financial Crisis.

There are surely parallels between then and now (as there always are). But from what we have learned so far, the differences seem far more significant than the similarities. As the guy who (literally) wrote the book on bank bailouts, what say we do a compare and contrast?

What dont we know? I have been surfing major crises on Wall Street for nearly three decades. Consider all of these market roiling events: The 1987 crash, Long Term Capital Management, Enron, dotcom implosions, 9/11, GFC, Madoff, Flash Crash, Covid, January 6th, and FTX. If there is a unifying theme that connects all of them, it is just how little we know as these events unfold in real-time.

UCLA Bruin coach John Wooden used to exhort players to Never mistake activity for achievement. Similarly, we should not confuse the sheer volume of punditry surrounding SVB with actual knowledge of what really happened.

The first draft of history is emotional, shallow, and very often incorrect. It can take years before we learn the actual details of what occurred, and understand the causation. The truth requires a concerted...

20:46

Debt Rattle March 16 2023 The Automatic Earth

Pable Picasso Le Pengouin 1907   Credit Suisse Borrows $54BN From SNB: Pre-emptively Strengthen Liquidity (ZH) EU Shrugs Off Silicon Valley Bank Collapse (Pol.eu) Pentagon Calls Moscow Over Drone Incident (RT) US Drones Have No Business Near Russia Ambassador (RT) Drone Incident Confirms US Involvement In Ukraine Conflict

The post Debt Rattle March 16 2023 appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

20:37

EU deforestation law risks making sustainable palm oil certification irrelevant, says grower Eco-Business

Palm oil players are required to prove that their products are deforestation-free beyond the standards of current certification schemes, says a Wilmar International representative. It might lead to these schemes losing their relevance.

19:47

'Sustainability startups need to balance purpose and profitability': agripreneur Willie Ng Eco-Business

Founder and executive director of Global Cerah, Willie Ng tells Eco-Business how his start-up is helping to mitigate the food cost crisis in Malaysia by turning agricultural waste into alternative proteins that can be used as feed meal.

18:00

AI boom is dream and nightmare for workers in Global South Eco-Business

Lax labour regulations and low wages are the norm for data annotation workers in poorer nations, but many have no choice.

A warmer, wetter climate challenges a Chinese eco-farm Eco-Business

As theories circulate that climate change could benefit some farmers, one in Chinas Northwest faces harsher realities.

17:00

Philippines fishermen balk at land reclamation projects Eco-Business

Developments in Manila Bay are causing unease in fishing communities hit by shrinking catches and mounting climate risks.

16:00

Thousands of people at risk of being displaced by hydropower in central Nepal Eco-Business

Just one river is due to have 36 hydropower projects, with local people saying the impacts of tunnelling the mountainside are already forcing them to leave their homes.

15:32

Why Matt Yglesias should be a classical liberal Marginal Revolution

Matt recently wrote a (gated) piece arguing that we should raise American taxes and increase the American welfare state.  I never understand how this squares with this desire to reach one billion Americans in the not too distant future.  To be clear, I also favor a much larger population.

If you ever have done hiring, and I believe Matt has at Vox, you will understand that so, so often selection is more important than ex post incentives.  That is, you need to get the right people into your firm, start-up, media venture, non-profit, or whatever.  And the right people can be very hard to find and attract, as I think Matt also has noted.

Now, on which basis do you wish to select people arriving into your country?  Do you wish to offer them a lower-risk, more secure, more egalitarian, less upside option?  Or do you want to reward ambition to a disproportionate degree?  Dont forget you are building up the home base for most of the worlds TFP!

To me it is obvious that you should prefer the structure of rewards that attracts the harder-working, more ambitious people.  You want to send out the inegalitarian bat signal.

Of course, if America is headed toward one billion people (or even much less) in the foreseeable future, most of the country will end up being relatively recent immigrants and their descendants.  So the selection of those immigrants really is of vital importance.  The more open is immigration, the more important it is to have the right incentives for selection and to be sending out the right bat signal.  Furthermore, the less immigration selects on formal credentials and a points system, the more important it is to attract the properly ambitious by setting the right incentives and the right bat signal in place.

Oddly, it is anti-immigration conservatives who should be more complacent about increasing welfare spending.  If few people are entering, and if you require formal credentials to enter and stay, selection problems will be correspondingly smaller.

And that is why Matt should be a classical liberal.  We are rebuilding the nation all the time, most of all if we listen to Matt Yglesias.

The post Why Matt Yglesias should be a classical liberal appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

...

15:30

Thailand, EU Agree to Restart Free Trade Pact Negotiations Pacific Money The Diplomat

Brussels called a halt negotiations in mid-2014, shortly after the Thai military seized power in a coup.

09:28

That was then, this is now, hail Nat Friedman edition! Marginal Revolution

Here is further commentary from Nat:This is how you know were running low on training dataHow would the ancient Romans feel if they knew that 2000 years later, we would be using particle accelerators and supercomputers to read their words, preserve them for eternity, and whisper them into the ear of a baby god?Ascension

The post That was then, this is now, hail Nat Friedman edition! appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

    ...

09:08

A Too Big To Fail Bank In Europe Is Literally On The Brink Of Collapse The Economic Collapse

Do you remember when wealthy people all over the world would stash their money in Swiss banks because there were so strong and so private?  Well, the second largest bank in Switzerland is literally on the brink of collapse.  As I discussed yesterday, Credit Suisse is a prime candidate to be one of the next dominoes to fall.  It has been on very shaky ground for a long time, and now the global banking panic has greatly accelerated the outflow of assets from the bank.  So why should you care if it fails?  Unlike Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, Credit Suisse is so critical to the worldwide banking system that it has officially been designated as being systemically important by the international Financial Stability Board

Credit Suisse is one of just 30 global financial institutions designated as being systemically important by the international Financial Stability Board. In other words, its too big to fail.

A too big to fail bank has not collapsed in more than a decade.

If Credit Suisse does go under, the shockwaves will reverberate all over the planet.  Even though Credit Suisse is now smaller than it once was, it is still vastly larger than SVB

Credit Suisse had total assets of $574 billion at the end of 2022 down 37% from $912 billion at the end of 2020. Its asset-management arm supervises another $1.7 trillion in assets. Those numbers dwarf anything seen at Silicon Valley Bank, which had total assets of $212 billion.

So let us hope that Credit Suisse can b...

08:27

Deposit Insurance And Cheap MoneyThe Ultimate Financial Bad Guys David Stockman's Contra Corner

Why would you throw-in the towel now? We are referring to the Feds belated battle against inflation, which evidences few signs of having been successful. Yet thats what the entitled herd on Wall Street is loudly demanding. As usual, they want the stock indexes to start going back up after an extended drought and are []

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07:00

Discussing Bank Contagion with Pete Dominick The Big Picture

 

 

I spent some time with my buddy Pete Dominick on Monday talking about all of the things we dont know about SVB. As always, its a fun conversation I pop in at the 19 minute mark.

 

 

 

 

The post Discussing Bank Contagion with Pete Dominick appeared first on The Big Picture.

06:47

The Next Economy: the path to social and environmental justice with Teju Adisa-Farrar Shareable

Shareable is partnering with LIFT Economy to share the audio recordings from the Next Economy MBA program. Over the course of 9 months, well be publishing all 18 of their trainings for everyones benefit. If youre interested in learning more about their program or would like to take advantage of the current 20% off early bird special please visit: https://go.lifteconomy.com/nextmba

Subscribe to Next Economy Now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pandora,...

06:29

Credit Suisse Blows Out Peak Prosperity

Here are my updated thoughts for the day.

05:35

The Gift We Need to Give the 21st Century Stories by umair haque on Medium

The Under-Appreciated and Unrewarded Part of UsAnd Why It Matters Most Now

04:11

A.G. Tish James Recovers $24,000 in Stolen Wages for Employees of So-Called Worker Co-op Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

A.G. Tish James Recovers $24,000 in Stolen Wages for Employees of So-Called Worker Co-op Josh Davis March 15, 2023, 5:11 pm

Every New Yorker deserves fair pay and compensation for their hard work, said Attorney General James. Instead of building up our communities, the owners of Build With Prospect exploited workers and unlawfully withheld their hard-earned wages. My office is committed to ensuring everyone receives the wages they are owed, and we will continue to go after employers who prey on hardworking people.

Brooklyn-based Build With Prospect claimed to operate as a worker cooperative, but forced workers to become shareholders of the company by making their employment conditional on owning shares. Workers were required to sign a shareholder agreement and pay $12,000 total for their alleged shares in the company, but they had very little control over the company as shareholders and did not receive any benefits of ownership.

Read the rest at BK Reader

 

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Publication date

04:08

The 2023 National Conference on Black Cooperative Agenda Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

The 2023 National Conference on Black Cooperative Agenda Josh Davis March 15, 2023, 5:08 pm

The hosts are Network for Developing Conscious Communities and Las Vegas Department of Neighborhood Services.

Organized and curated by Network for Developing Conscious Communities and Las Vegas Department of Neighborhood Services is a three-day conference that brings together Black cooperators and cooperatives united by their passion for growing sustainable cooperative businesses.

Learn from and be inspired by some of the most renowned figures from business and beyond a blend of content comprised of entrepreneurs, innovators, thinkers, and artists.

The conference focuses on the issues most relevant to todays Black cooperative businesses, stimulating new thinking and inspiring action.

It provides a unique networking environment to connect with like-minded Black professionals, cooperators and cooperatives

Read the rest and register at NDCC

 

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02:57

How good is current stress testing? Marginal Revolution

I know how easy it is for some of you to write your Op-Eds calling for more, more, more regulation, but banking is already a remarkably regulated sector.  Maybe sometimes those regulations just dont work so well.  (I still recall the earlier call for have them hold more government securities!)  And you cant just blame that on the plutocrats, the tech bros, or whatever.

The post How good is current stress testing? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

     ...

01:09

Comparing Online Suboxone Doctors With Traditional Physicians The Event Chronicle

The ongoing opioid crisis has forced many individuals to seek treatment for opioid use disorder. Suboxone is a powerful medication that can be used to help treat opioid addiction, but not every person is able to access a traditional healthcare provider to get the prescription they need.

Fortunately, there are online suboxone doctors that can provide a safe and convenient way to access this powerful medication.

In this article, we will compare online Suboxone doctors with traditional physicians to help you decide which option is best for you. We will list the advantages and disadvantages of both options and leave it up to you to decide which one works. If youd like to consider the former, Confidant Healths suboxone doctors are a message away to help you deal with your concerns.

Traditional Physicians

Source: abcnews.go.com

The first option for individuals looking to get a Suboxone prescription is to visit a traditional healthcare provider. This could be a doctor, a nurse practitioner, or a psychiatrist. Some conventional doctors, such as primary care physicians (PCPs), may be generalists as well. When a certain health problem or illness affects many physiological systems, multiple doctors may collaborate to regulate your symptoms or manage your diseases. This traditional medicine method is widely seen as reactive rather than preventative.

These providers are trained and experienced in diagnosing and treating opioid use disorder and will be able to provide you with a prescription for Suboxone if they determine that its right for you.

1. Advantages of Traditional Physicians

The primary benefit of going to a traditional physician is that they will be able to asse...

00:34

A Bailout Most Crooked David Stockman's Contra Corner

Oh, cmon! They have done it again, and in a way that makes a flaming mockery of both honest market economics and the so-called rule of law. In effect, the triumvirate of fools at the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have essentially guaranteed $9 trillion of uninsured bank deposits with no legislative mandate and no capital []

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Wednesday, 15 March

23:06

Canada Institutionalizes Child Murder PaulCraigRoberts.org

Canada Institutionalizes Child Murder

We now know conclusively that the Covid vaccines are dangerous to life and health, especially to children and that the vaccines do not protect against Covid but do make it much more likely to come down with Covid.  In the face of these known facts, Canada is pushing to inject babies 6 months of age and older children with the deadly vaccines.

It is not possible that authorities and doctors in Canada are unaware of the dangers of the vaccines.  Therefore, the only possible explanation for this policy is intentional murder.  

And nothing is done about it.

We are living in an era of Satanic evil.  How else could this be happening?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/alberta-canada-now-giving-covid-19-vaccines-minors-without-parental-consent-doctors-now-hazard-your-child-health/5811905 

23:04

Are Jews Responsible for the Destruction of Western civilization as Tobias Langdon Claims or Is the cause Self-Destruction Resulting from White Liberal attacks on White Confidence? PaulCraigRoberts.org

 

Dear Readers, truth and honest reporting are on the verge of extinction.  Support those whose agenda is truth. 

Are Jews Responsible for the Destruction of Western civilization as Tobias Langdon Claims or Is the cause Self-Destruction Resulting from White Liberal attacks on White Confidence?

Paul Craig Roberts

Tobias Langdon makes a case that Jews have worked to undermine gentile countries. https://www.unz.com/article/the-trouble-with-trans-westernism-how-men-cant-be-women-and-jews-cant-be-american/

As I see it, if so, they have had a lot of help from gentiles themselves.  The skepticism in Enlightenment thought in the end unravels civilization by subjecting everything to doubt.  This is a long process of erosion, the story of which waits to be told.  Jacques Barzun attempted the task in his book, From Dawn to Decadence dedicated to all whom it may concern and whose opening lines are: It takes only a look at the numbers to see that the twentieth century is coming to an end. A wider and deeper scrutiny is needed to see that in the West the culture of the last 500 years is ending at the same time.  

It seems that Barzun is correct as it is difficult to find any remains of Western culture in the 21st century where the normalization of perversity and the institutionalization of tyranny and demonization of white ethnicities are the rage, but I have not seen any influence of Bazuns effort or any attempt to recover the civilization that has been destroyed.

It is perhaps too easy to blame it all on the Jews.  Even if we assume like Langdon that Jews are responsible, there has to be a weakness in the foundation of white gentile civilization for Jews to exploit.  Michael Polanyi explained this weakness, but his explanation failed to receive attention.

Perhaps we are so far gone that the question cannot be raised.  As far as I can tell, white gentile intellectuals are committed to the attack on Western civilization, not to its defense.

Affirmation of Western civilization has disappeared from education. Artistic works formerly regarded as achievements are today labeled by museum curators racist statements.  Christian morality is more honored in the breach than in the observance.  Academic faculties, administrations, and students disrespect the First Amendment.  Free speech is being shut down everywhere as offensive and misinformation that is a threat to democracy. Truth has been redefined as whatever furthers Woke agendas.  Empirical facts that dont suppo...

21:30

10 Wednesday AM Reads The Big Picture

Programming note: Morning Reads will be in Dallas Thursday and Friday we will be back on the weekend

 

My mid-week morning train reads:

Dissecting Goldmans gory $2.25bn SVB equity issue Well that escalated quickly. (Financial Times)

Whose Fault is it Anyway: It has been 872 days since a bank failed in the United States. This was the longest streak on record. Were now at day zero. Silicon Valley bank went down on Friday. Signature Bank last night. These are the second and third largest bank failures in history behind Washington Mutual during the GFC. (Irrelevant Investor)

Three Million U.S. Households Making Over $150,000 Are Still Renters: High cost of homeownership and a tight housing market drive demand for rental properties. (Wall Street Journal)

How Silicon Valley Turned on Silicon Valley Bank: The fallout threatens to engulf the startup worldand has exposed a new set of vulnerabilities for the banking system. (Wall Street Journal) see also The End of Silicon Valley BankAnd a Silicon Valley Myth: We are still learning exactly how much of this industrys genius was a mere LIRP, or low-interest-rate phenomenon. (The Atlantic)

Fiscal Justice Investing Is Changing the Municipal Bond Market: A new generation of investors is imbuing that traditional sense of purpose with an awareness of those who have been historically underserved. (Worth)

Meta gives up on NFTs for Facebook and Instagram: Meta is moving on from more crypto projects, even though NFTs / digital collectibles were once pitched as part of its metaverse future. (The Verge)

How fake sugars sneak into foods and disrupt metabolic health: Artificial sweeteners and other sugar substitutes sweeten foods without extra calories. But studies show the ingredients can affect gut and heart health. (...

20:40

Debt Rattle March 15 2023 The Automatic Earth

Ray K. Metzker Marseille 1961   US Drones Gather Data For Kievs Future Strikes On Russia Ambassador (TASS) Saudi-Iranian Dtente Is a Wake-Up Call for America (Walt) Glazyev: The Road To Financial Multipolarity Will Be Long And Rocky (Escobar) Ukraine Doesnt Have the Resources for a Counteroffensive (Antiwar) Russian

The post Debt Rattle March 15 2023 appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

18:55

Environmental rights as human rights in Asean: Why not? Eco-Business

In Asean, there is no general regional agreement securing environmental rights and obligations but the Asean Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution is an example of a sectoral achievement.

17:28

Not your grandfathers crypto? Marginal Revolution

Crypto prices soar on support for depositors (FT)

Bitcoin and ether jump 20% in the last three days after US authorities intervene

Ive said it before and Ill say it again.  Crypto is a luxury, long-term financial intermediation project which may or may not succeed.  It comoves with the market, stability, low interest rates, and long time horizons.  It is not a potential substitute for fiat currency.

The post Not your grandfathers crypto? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       
...

15:55

Win-win for Ant Group and climate as it secures Asias biggest ESG-linked loan: group treasurer Charles Cao Eco-Business

Ants group VP and treasurer says the $6.5 billion deal allows the fintech company to raise capital at a cheaper cost to meet green goals. There are, however, concerns about the lack of transparency behind sustainability-linked structures.

15:41

A Major Shock Makes Prices More Flexible and May Result in a Burst of Inflation or Deflation Marginal Revolution

From the excellent Robert E. Hall:

The US and other advanced countries suffered bursts of severe inflation in 2021 and the first half of 2022, followed by declines of inflation later in 2022, in some countries. In times of high volatility of price determinantscost and productivityinflation can jump upward and fall downward at high speed, contrary to the uniformly sticky behavior associated with traditional Phillips curves. This paper establishes that sectors with standard New Keynesian price stickiness are vulnerable to rapid transitions from stickiness to flexibility, as sellers elect to reset their prices and abandon anchoring. The paper shows that the cross-industry volatility of price determinants grew substantially in the inflation episode accompanying the pandemic. Volatility remained elevated even in late 2022. The logic of the New Keynesian model of the Phillips curve links inflation to volatility, because a larger fraction of sellers are pushed out of their regions of inaction when volatility is elevated. The New Keynesian Phillips curve becomes much steeper in volatile times.

Here is the full NBER working paper.  I also liked these sentences from the first page:

A seller in a more volatile environment will adopt policies that involve more frequent adjustments of the sellers price, compared to one is a less volatile environment.  Consequently, prices will respond more quickly to driving forces and the relation between inflation and driving forces will be steeper.

Very likely a part of the broader inflation story.

The post A Major Shock Makes Prices More Flexible and May Result in a Burst of Inflation or Deflation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

  ...

15:00

New concessions to greenlight large-scale exploitation of Indonesias marine resources Eco-Business

Key changes have raised concerns among some marine conservationists and defenders of artisanal fishers rights, who say the new regime is oriented mostly toward the large-scale exploitation of Indonesias marine resources when more than half of fishing zones in the country are already fully exploited.

14:35

Carbon-laden estuaries can spew potent climate-heating gas, study shows Eco-Business

A dangerous mix of airborne carbon dioxide and upstream chemicals can cause coastal seawater to acidify so much that microbes start emitting high levels of nitrous oxide, which warms the Earth quickly and stays in the air for a century.

14:27

Green Climate Fund appoints new head Eco-Business

Former Climate Investment Funds CEO Mafalda Duarte takes over from Yannick Glemarec as ED and has a brief to speed up disbursement of funds to developing countries.

12:50

The chief sustainability officer: To hire or not to hire? Eco-Business

For a business that wants to improve both its environmental impact and resilience, hiring someone to achieve that objective would on the face of it, seem like the most logical decision to make. But attaining corporate sustainability success is often more nuanced than just hiring a chief sustainability officer (CSO). While leadership is at the core of driving a business towards this goal, it's the right type of leaders, appointed at the right time, which truly matter.

12:23

Ho hum (via Alex) Marginal Revolution

The post Ho hum (via Alex) appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       

11:54

Singapore sustainability sector salary survey: who's paid most? Eco-Business

Bank sustainability chiefs are paid the most, NGO execs the least. Sustainability salaries in Singapore are growing but the level of salary increment is levelling off as the talent pool starts to mature, according to recruiter Michael Page.

11:13

A Bailout Most Crooked, Part 2 David Stockman's Contra Corner

One of the great truisms of economics is that the state cannot regulate its way out of bad money. Thats what the bank failure imbroglio of the past few days was all about, symbolized almost farcically by the failure of Signature Bank, the board of which was graced by former Congressman Barney Frank. If there []

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10:04

The Dominoes Are Starting To Fall Very Rapidly Now Could These Banks Be Next? The Economic Collapse

Welcome to the great banking collapse of 2023.  Please try to enjoy the ride.  When FTX crumbled, I explained to my readers that it was not the first domino to fall and that it certainly would not be the last.  Sadly, that prediction turned out to be completely accurate.  Within the last week, we have witnessed the second and third largest bank collapses in the entire history of our country.  But Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are not unique cases.  The Federal Reserve created a 620 billion dollar blackhole in our banking system by aggressively raising interest rates, and our quadrillion dollar derivatives pyramid scheme is starting to tremble violently.  The Federal Reserve is desperately trying to fix things by recklessly spraying money around, but the truth is that Fed officials are ultimately going to need a much bigger hose.

The speed at which financial institutions can collapse in a digital economy is absolutely breathtaking.  It is being reported that 42 billion dollars was withdrawn from Silicon Valley Bank in one day alone

Customers withdrew $42 billion in a single day last week from Silicon Valley Bank, leaving the bank with $1 billion in negative cash balance, the company said in a regulatory filing. The staggering withdrawals unfolded at a speed enabled by digital banking and were likely fueled in part by viral panic spreading on social media platforms and, reportedly, in private chat groups.

Signature Bank was also hit by a withdrawal tsunami, and right now many other regional banks are also seeing huge outflows.

So which banks will be the next to implode?

Well, on Tuesday Moodys Investors Service suddenly slashed its outlook...

09:54

Success stories of cooperative business Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

Success stories of cooperative business Josh Davis March 14, 2023, 10:54 pm

At Namast Solar, an installer of solar energy systems, owner-members have access to company financials and participate in regular, open discussions of important data and decisions. The coop also offers a compelling example of 'scaling out'. After expanding to other states, the board encouraged the formation of similar solar energy cooperatives in a collaborative network. Organisational literacy, combined with staying small, but networking widely, supports a robust and far-reaching system of worker participation.

Read the rest at HR Magazine

 

Insert an image into the text
Publication date

07:10

Vietnam Has a Long Way to Go on Decarbonization Pacific Money The Diplomat

In order to attract foreign investment in zero-carbon energy sources, the government will have to undertake serious structural reforms.

05:46

GPT-4 Marginal Revolution

The post GPT-4 appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       
...

04:38

Banks, Banks, Banks: The Elephant Nobody Even Sees oftwominds-Charles Hugh Smith

Our faith in the wobbling world of hyper-financialization will soon be tested.

It's interesting, isn't it, that amidst a tsunami of commentary about banks, nobody mentions the proverbial elephant in the room, which is the overwhelming dominance of finance in the economy and society, a dominance which raises the big question: is the dominance of finance healthy for the economy and society?

The reason why nobody even sees this elephant is we've come to believe "it's always been this way" and "this is the natural order of things." Both are false. Yes, debt and lending have been integral to "money," trade and civilization from the beginning, as David Graeber so memorably detailed in his book Debt: The First 5,000 Years. But essential isn't the same as dominant.

Without much in the way of recognition or inquiry, we've allowed finance to become the foundation of the entire economy. The entire economy will now grind to a halt without trillions of dollars of credit sluicing through every rivulet, stream and river of commerce. From overnight lending facilities to 30-year mortgages, debt/credit is the lubricant of the economy.

What's been forgotten is the economy that once relied not just on credit but on savings and cash. In the pre-financialization economy, capital and credit were scarce; capital commanded a premium, and lending / credit sluiced through very narrow channels: conservatively underwritten conventional 30-year mortgages, debit cards such as American Express that had to be paid in full every month (and such cards were hard to get, by the way), and conservatively underwritten loans to enterprises.

Credit cards required evidence of fiscal prudence and had low limits, generally just enough to buy an appliance and pay it off in a few months.

What we take for granted--auto loans and credit card limits equal to or higher than an annual wage--would have been viewed as incomprehensibly imprudent and fantastical. Loans for vehicles were available, but only to the credit-worthy and if the buyer put down 50% in cash.

At higher levels of finance, outright scams such as SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) were not allowed.The foundation of absurd stock market overvaluations--corporate buybacks--were also restricted.

The astounding expansion of credit and financialized skims and scams are now the lifeblood of the economy, and any pause in their endless expansion triggers shivers of terror. Good golly, what kind of horrors would we suffer if J. Citizen can't buy a $50,000 car or truck with $1,000 down? How could we survive without 3% down payment mortgages? What doom would await us if corporations were no longer able to raise billions of dollars in the credit markets and use that money to buy back their own shares?

Rather...

02:37

My Pronouns are PANIC / RECESSION Future Money Trends

All Bark, No Bite

I want to surgically talk about a phrase I hear often, and that is moving the goalpost.

The complaint I constantly hear is that the government keeps moving the goalpost, that theyre making the rules as they go along, or that theyre playing God and picking who will be the winners and the losers.

I want to put this to bed: the goalpost is NEVER standing still. In 16 years of buying and selling stocks, real estate investments, alternative assets, and off-market opportunities, Ive yet to encounter any trend or train of thought that wasnt turned on its head later.

Bernanke didnt think a nationwide housing plunge was possible, and six months later, the very same person was presiding over the crisis.

Powell said that rate hikes were on autopilot until he completely U-turned in 2019.

FDIC-insured bank accounts protected up to $250,000 until they guaranteed any amount where SVB depositors were concerned.

The Federal government didnt hand out personal checks to citizens because thats inflationary, reckless, and creates dependency at least until three of them were sent to every eligible recipient.

The next sacred cow to be sacrificed is the cherished we are committed to fighting inflation and are prepared to do whatever is necessary saying.

93% Of Investors Generate Annual Retur...

02:33

Labour market offers glimmers of hope for the Chancellor and the Bank Resolution Foundation

Todays labour market statistics show employment has been holding up well in the face of the higher interest rates and the cost of living crisis. Meanwhile, there were encouraging early signs that labour market activity is improving and pay growth generating less inflation a bit of good news for the Chancellor ahead of Wednesdays Budget. Theres less good news for workers, as the real wage squeeze continues.

Labour demand looks to have stabilised

Recent months of data had pointed to a turning point in demand for workers, with vacancies falling and redundancies creeping up. But with unemployment unchanged again (still low at 3.7 per cent) and employment rising (slowly), it now looks like demand has stabilised. Vacancies are coming down as they get filled, but only in the private sector, and remain high at 1.1 million about one-third above pre-pandemic levels.

Good news for the Chancellor: labour supply is picking up

Tomorrows Budget is expected to see a big focus on labour force participation, which has suffered badly in the UK and not many other places since the pandemic (see my recent report basically written by coauthored with Louise Murphy for more details). In this context, its encouraging to see that inactivity is down 77,000 on the quarter among people aged 16-64. However, much of this came from a fall in the number of students not obviously a good thing   and theres a long way to go (inactivity remains 488,000 up on pre-pandemic levels). Look out for our budget reaction for more on this,...

02:28

Testify! Peak Prosperity

Its important that we embolden each other and be the source of support in these crazy times.  Not only is there nothing wrong with preaching to the choir but its essential that we do. Lets be honest; too many people have lost their minds.  Theyve fallen into deeply illogical territory from which they may never

Testify! Read More

Tuesday, 14 March

23:30

Transcript: Richard Bernstein The Big Picture

 

 

The transcript from this weeks, MiB: Richard Bernstein, CEO/CIO at RBA, is below.

You can stream and download our full conversation, including any podcast extras, on iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google, YouTube, and Bloomberg. All of our earlier podcasts on your favorite pod hosts can be found here.

~~~

ANNOUNCER: This is Masters in Business with Barry Ritholtz on Bloomberg Radio.

BARRY RITHOLTZ, HOST, MASTERS IN BUSINESS: This week on the podcast, I have another extra special guest, Rich Bernstein is a legend in finance circles. He was the chief investment strategist at Merrill Lynch where he worked for more than 20 years. He launched his own firm right into the teeth of the collapse in 09, which turned out to be quite a fortuitous time to launch an asset management shop. He is a macro top-down guy with a strong quantitative background.

If youre at all interested in thinking about asset allocation, top-down analysis, how to think about the world of investing, not as a stock picker, but as a broad macro perspective, none better than Rich Bernstein. I found this co...

23:07

The Cover-up Begins PaulCraigRoberts.org

Dear Readers, support your website.

The Cover-up Begins

Paul Craig Roberts

The disinformation service, Bloomberg, takes the lead. Bloomberg points its finger at Donald Trump and Trump era deregulation. In Bloombergs rewriting of history,  Trump is responsible because he signed a bill passed by Democrats and Republicans that allowed mid-sized banks to skirt some of the strictest post-financial crisis regulations. So, where was the federal reserve? Where were the bank regulators? Bloomberg doesnt say.

Presidents dont write financial legislation. Financial legislation that the Federal Reserve and the SEC dont approve doesnt get passed. A third world immigrant-invader, Ro Khanna, who somehow represents in Congress Silicon Valley says: Congress must come together to reverse the deregulation policies that were put in place under Trump.

What utter total bullshit.

Silicon Valley Bank failed because in 1999 the Clinton regime signed the repeal of the Glass-Steagall act and because the Dodd-Frank Act allows failing banks to seize the deposits of depositors in order to have a bail-in instead of a bail-out. The foolish legislation causes depositors to withdraw their deposits on any sign of bank trouble.

The utterly mindless Dodd-Frank Act set up the mechanism for modern-day bank runs. If you have more money on deposit than the $250,000 insured amount, Dodd-Frank allows the bank to bail itself out by seizing your deposits. Many companies and corporations have payroll deposits in excess of $250,000. If deposits are seized, business cant pay their workers or their bills. Thus Dodd-Frank is an excellent way of initiating bank runs and collapsing businesses and employment and city and state tax revenues.

But dont expect Bloomberg to ever tell you any truth. I have never read a correct report on Bloomberg.

Silicon Valley Bank got in trouble because the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and reduced the value of the banks bond portfolio which made the bank insolvent. Large depositors, seeing their money at risk, quickly withdrew it. Silicon Valley Bank had to sell its depreciating bond portfolio, thus depreciating its value more, to meet withdrawals, thus driving down the value of its bonds, with the consequence that the banks liabilities exceeded its assets leaving the bank bankrupt.

The Democratic Party is an anti-American political party. It does not represent anything envisioned by our Founding Fathers. It has no respect for a rule of law, the US Constitution, truth, and White Americans, who are racist and domestic terrorists by definition.

Trump was a challenge to Democrat woke hegemony. Consequently, everything wrong in America is blamed on Trump by Democrats and presstitutes.

The crazed woke politics that Democrats, presstitutes, and universities have inflicted on America preclu...

22:58

Questions for Mr. Putin from a Russian PaulCraigRoberts.org

Questions for Mr. Putin from a Russian

posted on moonofalabama.org 

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/03/ukraine-open-thread-2023-60.html?cid=6a00d8341c640e53ef02b7519a5a9c200c#comment-6a00d8341c640e53ef02b7519a5a9c200c 

It seems that I am not the only person with doubts about Putins approach to conflict.

Questions for Mr. Putin from a Russian

  1. Why has a special operation, which usually takes no more than a few days, a few weeks maximum, has turned into a full-scale armed conflict that has been going on for a year and, judging by the Presidents actions (giving vacations to the members of the Special Military Operation every six months, for example), will last at least several years? If this is due to intelligence errors and miscalculations of the political leadership, then what conclusions should be drawn from these errors, including those involving personnel?

2. What is the purpose of the SMO? Demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, coupled with pushing NATO out of our borders, as mentioned at the beginning? Or the protection of Donbass from bombardments, or the protection of our border lands, which until February 2022 were never hit by shells and rockets from the Ukrainian side? The president and his ideologues named and the first, and second, and third reason, but never explained why they have change their minds so quickly. It is noteworthy that not only were none of these goals achieved in the last year, but exactly the opposite happened. An attempt to demilitarize Ukraine has led to a Ukraine is now much better armed than a year ago, and with the most modern Western weapons. An attempt to denazify ended with an increase in the approval of the nationalist Bandera among the citizens of Ukraine (from 22% in 2012 to 74% in the spring of 2022). The defense of Donbass was carried out with such elephantine grace that it is still being bombed and the number of casualties has increased dramatically (in 2021 there were about 100 victims of the UAF bombing, and in 2022 more than a thousand). An attempt to put up a barrier against NATO has resulted in Finland and Sweden joining NATO (which means NATO troops soon to be stationed near St. Petersburg), and Ukraine, though formally remaining a non-NATO member, is in fact in the closest coordination with the armies of the alliance. And again, no one at the top even tries to admit mistakes and understand who is to blame for the fact that the goal of the SMO achieved exactly its opposite.

3. What are the losses of Russia in this conflict? The Ministry of Defense reported on the losses many months ago, the authorities with cheerful...

22:57

It Seems Putin Is Unwilling, or Lacks the Force, to Quickly End the Conflict Before the West Can Arm and Train the Ukrainians with More Powerful Weapons PaulCraigRoberts.org

It Seems Putin Is Unwilling, or Lacks the Force, to Quickly End the Conflict Before the West Can Arm and Train the Ukrainians with More Powerful Weapons

Russian forces continue to be limited to skirmishes inside small towns while the West prepares a new Ukrainian army.  

Is the cause of this Kremlin blunder mindlessness or, as some patriotic Russian nationalists say, hollowed-out Russian military infrastructure resulting from cost-saving measures.  Again, where is the Russian Army?  Is there one?

If there is not, the situation can quickly explode into nuclear war.  The West should cease its provocations before it is too late.

PCR

22:57

The Christian-hating Jew, Zelensky, a sexual pervert, who Biden is supporting with Christian money, is evicting Christian Monks as a spiritual cleansing of Ukraine PaulCraigRoberts.org

The Christian-hating Jew, Zelensky, a sexual pervert, who Biden is supporting with Christian money, is evicting Christian Monks as a spiritual cleansing of Ukraine

The only achievement of the Biden regime is the shame it has brought upon America.

https://www.rt.com/russia/572918-zelensky-kiev-pechersk-lavra-takeover/ 

22:56

Reconstruction Resurrected PaulCraigRoberts.org

Reconstruction Resurrected

Now the North is experiencing the Reconstruction that the South lived under.

For political purposes a corrupt black is indicting a white President of the United States.
In the South it was landowners who were indicted so that Northern Carpetbaggers could steal their property.
The fight for political power in the US now rivals the murderous struggles found in the third world where succeeding presidents indict their predecessor.

22:25

The Impact of AI on Productivity Marginal Revolution

We dont yet know the impact that AI will have on productivity but some evidence is starting to come in. Peng et al. (2023) hired programmers on Upwork to write an HTTP server in Javascript; half of the programmers got access to CoPilot (this was before CoPilot was widely available) half did not.

Conditioning on completing the task, the average completion time from the treated group is 71.17 minutes and 160.89 minutes for the control group. This represents a 55.8% reduction in completion time. The p-value for the t-test is 0.0017, and a 95% confidence interval for the improvement is between [21%, 89%]. There are four outliers with time to completion above 300 min. All outliers are in the control group, however our results remain robust if these outliers are dropped. This result suggests that Copilot increases average productivity significantly in our experiment population. We also find that the treated groups success rate is 7 percentage points higher than the control group, but the estimate is not statistically significant, with a 95% confidence interval of [-0.11, 0.25].

The authors extrapolate wildly:

In 2021, over 4.6 million people in the United States worked in computer and mathematical occupations,1 a Bureau of Labor Statistics category that includes computer programmers, data scientists, and statisticians. These workers earned $464.8 billion or roughly 2% of US GDP. If the results of this study were to be extrapolated to the population level, a 55.8% increase in productivity would imply a significant amount of cost savings in the economy and have a notable impact on GDP growth.

Still, worth thinking about.

The post The Impact of AI on Productivity appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

  ...

21:45

10 Tuesday AM Reads The Big Picture

My Two-for-Tuesday morning train reads:

Bank Runs, Now & Then: The Panic of 1907 would probably be more famous if it wasnt overshadowed by the Great Depression just a couple of decades later. It lasted 15 months and saw GDP decline an estimated 30% (even more than the Great Depression). Commodity prices crashed. Bankruptcies exploded. The stock market fell 50%. The unemployment rate went from 2.8% to 8%. (A Wealth of Common Sense) see also A Reverse Minsky Moment: Silicon Valley Banks collapse will make all the headlines, but what happened in the bond market deserves a lot of attention. The 2-year yield collapsed over the last two days to an extent only seen around historical events. Since 1990, the only other times we saw a decline of this magnitude was after the 9/11 attack, when Lehman Failed, when the TARP vote failed, and this week, when SVB failed. (Irrelevant Investor)

How the Weekend-Long Freakout Over Silicon Valley Bank Ended: And why the worst bank failure since 2008 happened in the first place. (Slate)

Profit margins are becoming a key controversial issue in the inflation discourse: Why are companies still charging high prices for stuff? (TKer) see also How Excuseflation Is Keeping Prices and Corporate Profits High: One-off disruptions can provide cover for companies to keep prices high. (Bloomberg)

Yale Invests This Way. Should You? Yale Universitys endowment has earned spectacular returns in hedge funds, private equity and other alternative assets. Investors hoping to mimic the school need to understand what has made it successful. (Wall Street Journal)

Waluigi Effect (mega-post) In this article, I will present a mechanistic explanation of the Waluigi Effect and other bizarre semiotic phenomena which arise within large language models such as GPT-3/3.5/4 and their variants (ChatGPT, Sydney, etc). This article will be folklorish to some readers, and profoundly novel to others. (...

20:20

Debt Rattle March 14 2023 The Automatic Earth

Louis Anquetin Girl Reading a Newspaper 1890   Kremlin Explains Its Only Option In Ukraine (RT) Doubts In Ukraine About Readiness To Mount Offensive -WaPo (RT) Xi Jinping Plans To Visit Moscow As Early As Next Week (TASS) Germany Is Not An Independent Nation Patrushev (RT) Russia Insists On

The post Debt Rattle March 14 2023 appeared first on The Automatic Earth.

19:00

The mining industry gets too much bad press: Philippines Chamber of Mines representative Eco-Business

Efforts by the industry to make improvements are not well-publicised, while the reporting of 'unfortunate' incidents skews the views of the public, said mining lawyer Patricia Bunye, in the wake of anti-mining protests in the archipelago.

The mining industry gets 'too much bad press': Philippine mining lawyer Patricia Bunye Eco-Business

Efforts by the industry to make improvements are not well-publicised, says Bunye, who is also a member of the legal committee of the Philippines' Chamber of Mines, in the wake of anti-mining protests in the archipelago.

18:25

Not right to tell youths 'they are the ones to solve all the worlds problems': climate activist Melati Wijsen Eco-Business

The 23-year-old activist got single-use plastic banned in Bali through Bye Bye Plastic Bags, which she co-founded at the age of 12. But we "do not need every single young person to create their own project" to drive change, she says.

17:42

The roots of misinformation fears? Marginal Revolution

Alarmist narratives about the flow of misinformation and its negative consequences have gained traction in recent years. If these fears are to some extent warranted, the scientific literature suggests that many of them are exaggerated. Why are people so worried about misinformation? In two pre-registered surveys conducted in the United Kingdom (Nstudy_1=300, Nstudy_2=300) and replicated in the United States (Nstudy_1=302, Nstudy_2=299), we investigated the psychological factors associated with perceived danger of misinformation and how it contributes to the popularity of alarmist narratives on misinformation. We find that the strongest, and most reliable, predictor of perceived danger of misinformation is the third-person effect (i.e. the perception that others are more vulnerable to misinformation than the self) and, in particular, the belief that distant others (as opposed to family and friends) are vulnerable to misinformation. The belief that societal problems have simple solutions and clear causes was consistently, but weakly, associated with perceived danger of online misinformation. Other factors, like negative attitudes toward new technologies and higher sensitivity to threats, were inconsistently, and weakly, associated with perceived danger of online misinformation. Finally, we found that participants who report being more worried about misinformation are more willing to like and share alarmist narratives on misinformation. Our findings suggest that fears about misinformation tap into our tendency to view other people as gullible.

That is from new work by Sacha Altay and Alberto Acerbi, via the excellent Kevin Lewis.

The post The roots of misinformation fears? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

 ...

17:00

Climate-vulnerable nations prepare to deploy loss and damage funds Eco-Business

A group of poor countries and island states will work out how to find and use finance to help communities deal with climate harm.

15:57

Why Bhutan failed its hydropower goal, and what this shows about the geopolitics of energy Eco-Business

Bhutan planned to have 10,000 MW of hydropower capacity by 2020; the delayed projects are costing over a billion dollars more than they were supposed to.

15:16

Machine Learning as a Tool for Hypothesis Generation Marginal Revolution

While hypothesis testing is a highly formalized activity, hypothesis generation remains largely informal. We propose a systematic procedure to generate novel hypotheses about human behavior, which uses the capacity of machine learning algorithms to notice patterns people might not. We illustrate the procedure with a concrete application: judge decisions about who to jail. We begin with a striking fact: The defendants face alone matters greatly for the judges jailing decision. In fact, an algorithm given only the pixels in the defendants mugshot accounts for up to half of the predictable variation. We develop a procedure that allows human subjects to interact with this black-box algorithm to produce hypotheses about what in the face influences judge decisions. The procedure generates hypotheses that are both interpretable and novel: They are not explained by demographics (e.g. race) or existing psychology research; nor are they already known (even if tacitly) to people or even experts. Though these results are specific, our procedure is general. It provides a way to produce novel, interpretable hypotheses from any high-dimensional dataset (e.g. cell phones, satellites, online behavior, news headlines, corporate filings, and high-frequency time series). A central tenet of our paper is that hypothesis generation is in and of itself a valuable activity, and hope this encourages future work in this largely pre-scientific stage of science.

Here is the full NBER working paper by Jens Ludwig and Sendhil Mullainathan.

The post Machine Learning as a Tool for Hypothesis Generation appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

  ...

15:00

Passport art sparks conservation debate in Sierra Leone Eco-Business

Inclusion of a chimpanzee in the countrys new passport triggers discussion about the state of wildlife conservation.

14:56

Is the New Bank of Japan Governor Up to the Task? Pacific Money The Diplomat

Incoming BOJ head Ueda Kazuo faces some difficult challenges.

14:19

How people can climate-proof their homes Eco-Business

Existing homes in Australia tend to have a poor thermal performance even in current climate conditions, yet the urgency to retrofit homes for better energy efficiency and comfort is given little political attention.

13:43

Why Will People Want to Live in Indonesias New Capital? Pacific Money The Diplomat

Despite the government's expansive vision, purpose-built, concept-driven projects like Nusantara have a poor track record of success.

10:44

Failed Banks, Monetary Mistakes and What It Means For Gold Peak Prosperity

I twisted the arm of Stephen Flood, the CEO of GoldCore, to discuss the failed banks, monetary mistakes, and gold. So we pulled together this Livecast that streamed out on Youtube at 1:45 pm on March 13th, 2023. Full disclosure, I have an account at GoldCore and they are a valued affiliate partner of Peak

Failed Banks, Monetary Mistakes and What It Means For Gold Read More

10:16

Its Not Working! The Feds Emergency Rescue Plan Has Not Ended The Banking Panic! The Economic Collapse

The widespread panic that we just witnessed is definitely not what the bureaucrats at the Federal Reserve were anticipating.  Following the second largest bank collapse in U.S. history on Friday and the third largest bank collapse in U.S. history on Sunday, the Federal Reserve unveiled an unprecedented rescue plan that was supposed to end the banking panic.  If you have not seen it yet, you can view the details on the official website of the Federal Reserve right here.  The most important part of the plan is the Feds decision to fully guarantee all of the deposits at Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank.  As Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein explained on Twitter, this bold course of action was supposed to have removed reasons for bank runs

But there was just one problem.

It didnt work.

Right now, social media is being flooded with messages from ordinary Americans that withdrew money from their bank accounts on Monday.

Here is just one example

08:47

A Bailout Most Crooked, Part 1 David Stockman's Contra Corner

Oh, cmon! They have done it again, and in a way that makes a flaming mockery of both honest market economics and the so-called rule of law. In effect, the triumvirate of fools at the Fed, Treasury and FDIC have essentially guaranteed $9 trillion of uninsured bank deposits with no legislative mandate and no capital []

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05:47

Building a More Equitable Internet Grassroots Economic Organizing - Catalyzing worker co-ops & the solidarity economy

Building a More Equitable Internet

Last weeks Platform Co-op School event highlighted ICDEs approach of recognizing the valuable contributions of scholars, technologists, artists, community organizers, and cooperators toward a more just and equitable digital economy. This is a recap of that event.

05:32

Sentences to ponder Marginal Revolution

Big banks behavior this time has been shaped by the fallout from 2008. Why isnt Dimon buying S.V.B.? He has complained about the headaches of buying Bear Stearns and Washington Mutual at the governments behest in 2008, having spent years fighting litigation and paying fines for those firms bad behavior. Bank executives who were around back then remember that.

That is from Dealbook 2.0, NYT, via TO.  File under The Costs of Intervention and Regulation and Political Grandstanding are Higher than You Think.

The post Sentences to ponder appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

       
...

04:15

DONT Ask Questions. Just Withdraw! Future Money Trends

Theres Always an Event

Did you ever hear about Silicon Valley Bank before this? The regional banking sector in the stock market isnt my cup of tea, personally. As a matter of general rule, I dont like banking as a business model.

Heres why, by the way what a bank does is take deposits and build a liability column. Yeah, your deposits are their liabilities, which ought to be ready to release to you at all times even if everyone comes at once, but on the flip side, they use the liability column as collateral to make loans and investments.

SVB (Silicon Valley Bank) had nearly $200B in deposits, so they invested those and made loans with them, but they did it all incorrectly. Heres the irony of it if you deposit $100M at a bank today, they take it and put it in 3-month Treasury bonds (which yield 4.75%), and the bank closes down so you call BlackRock, Vanguard, or whomever SVB was using to buy these Treasuries, theyll tell you that those are under the name of SVB, not yours.

In other words, when one deposits cash in a bank and sees the money is available in their account, the truth is that it isnt.

The first $250,000 is insured by the FDIC, and the rest (some clients have millions, tens of millions, and hundreds of millions on deposit) are now goign to be made whole with s special program, created for this.

Why should you care? After all, were not all Silicon Valley folks. The answer is that we should care (a lot).

For one, we should care because what happened to SVB is their bond portfolio got hammered because of the FED rate hikes. Whats actually pretty insane to think about is that the FEDs own balance sheet is suffering from massive losses itself!

Once those assets on the balance sheet were in the red, the bank immediately had an issue: their ass...

03:40

What (Really) Killed Silicon Valley Bank Stories by umair haque on Medium

What Else Implodes on Dying Planets? Financial Systems, And Ours Is Beginning To

03:34

Monday assorted links Marginal Revolution

1. Contrarian perspective on the current Israeli disputes.

2. Running cognitive pipelines on cheap hardware.  And additive prompting.

3. Maxims.  17th century, Hansonian.

4. Turkey fact of the day: Turkey borders seven different countries all of which use different alphabets.  Significant.

5. Machine learning as a tool for hypothesis generation.

6. This sea slug cut off its own head and lived to tell the tale.  And readjusting our expectations about the Fed, future rate hikes, and presumably inflation as well.  Be ready people.

The post Monday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.

 ...

03:24

Recession to Powell Come in, Powell Future Money Trends

Bank Runs

A few years ago, friends of ours relocated from Los Angeles to London. The couple met in LA in their twenties, got married, and founded an HVAC company from scratch. Through sheer will, determination, and with the lucky break of the biggest real estate bubble in American history in the 2000s, they were smart enough to sell the business in 2007 for just north of $10M.

If theyd milked that cow for just a few months longer, shed be dead, and theyd be left with no milk and no cow. Lesson No. 1 for today is that bubbles are abnormal, and when you catch one and capitalize on it, youre on the receiving end of a temporary disproportionate valuation boom and might as well take advantage.

On the flip side, if youre caught on the other end of it, the feeling is like standing next to a military helicopter when it takes off theres lots of wind, sand in your face, and nothing to show for it.

When they came to England in 2008, they immediately bought a home since the recession was in full effect but they were cash-rich.

Just four years later, the husband grew tired of the UK and missed his life in Los Angeles. They sold the house they bought for a 20% profit (bought for $5M, sold at $6M), making 66% on the down payment they initially made ($1.5M), and moved back to the States.

In 2012, at 43 years old and just having sold his business for $10M and making another $1M just by living in his home for four years, he was searching for his next chapter in life.

The bizarre lesson from this was that he was rich but bored. The takeaway is that while you build your financial fortress and asset machine, you must not let go of the lifestyle and hobbies that you absolutely love. Live life at all times!

He spent one year...

02:15

Dave Kranzler Asks:  Is 2008 unfolding All Over Again? PaulCraigRoberts.org

Dave Kranzler Asks:  Is 2008 unfolding All Over Again?

The Federal Reserves high interest rate policy is destabilizing the banking system.  The Fed deceived by manipulated economic reports is raising interest rates to fight inflation.  The higher interest rates are causing withdrawals from banks where interest rates on deposits are still about zero and very negative in real terms.  To meet the withdrawals, banks have to sell depreciated assets or the Fed has to cover the cash withdrawals.  In other words, the high interest rate policy is causing serious bank problems.

Kranzler reports:

The economy is in much worse shape than indicated by some of the economic reports particularly the major reports conjured up by the Government. A prime example is the employment report, which is statistically manipulated to show a much higher rate of employment than reality. As an example, the report for January purported the economy added 517k jobs, comprised of 894k new jobs less 377k jobs lost. However, 810k jobs were created using a statistical gimmick the BLS refers to as population control effect: 

The population controls are statistical hocus pocus that uses the latest decennial population survey and adds an estimate of births and deaths and estimates of net international migration. Its basically a statistical sausage grinder fed with dubious statistical ingredients to produce a highly unreliable statistical estimate of new jobs created. Per the graphic above, the population control effect manufactured 810k new jobs. We already know (as detailed in a prior issue of SSJ) that most of the jobs created since March have been part-time and most of those part-time jobs are people working multiple part-time jobs. I literally cringe when I hear experts like Jerome Powell say that the labor market is strong. 

Nevertheless, not only is the economy much weaker than is reflected by some economic reports like the employment report but it is starting to look like the rate of inflation is heating up again, as some of the price measurement metrics are trending higher again and energy prices are starting to rekindle, led by the price of gasoline futures which are up 32% since mid-December. Additionally, Wall Street 2023 corporate earnings estimates have been trending lower and are expected to be cut further in the coming months. While P/E ratios on stocks have fallen over the last year, if earnings head south, P/E ratios will head south, which means stock prices head south. 

In another indicat...

02:00

All the Things We Do Not Know About SVB The Big Picture

 

The news broke Sunday afternoon that depositors would be made whole and would have full access to their accounts and money today; equity investors in the bank would take their losses and senior management are fired. Whatever is left over (if anything) well go to bondholders as new owners for both Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank are being assessed.

I watched a parade of cocksure analysts and commentators and speculators on several different cable news channels discussing the fallout from the weekends activities with great confidence, which I hasten to add is surely unwarranted.

Forget what comes next, we still have very little idea of the complex causes of what actually happened. Whether its crisis management, commission trades, syndicate or (literally) book sales, lots of people all talking their books tends to provide little illumination.

Over my three decades of surfing crises on Wall Street. The one unifying thread that connects all of the major events is just how little we know as they unfold, and how much we learn in the ensuing months and years. The first draft of history is typically emotional, rarely accurate and often conflicted.

Recall the Thai Baht Crisis, Russian Ruble collapse (& LTCM), dotcom implosion, analysts scandals, IPO spinning, accounting frauds, the Great Financial Crisis, the Flash Crash (2010), Covid Crash, and now the latest SVB/Signature Bank collapse, and all of these follow the same pattern.

I was less impressed by the breaking news at the time of each of these and more impressed by what we learned subsequently. Lest you doubt this, consider these deeply reported books on major market issues:

Maggie Mahars Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004

Roger Lowensteins When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management

Bethany McCleans The Smartest Guys in the Room: The Amazi...

01:40

Possibility of Bank Contagion Lingers PaulCraigRoberts.org

Possibility of Bank Contagion Lingers

First Republic stock down 65% amid fears of regional bank contagion 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-today-live-updates-march-13-2023-114351107.html 

Treasury yields are falling as depositors fleeing banks seek a safe haven.  The demand for US Treasuries is driving up the bond prices, thus reducing the yields.  

Two things are necessary to restore confidence in banks.  One is to remove the $250,000 limit on insured deposits.  This limit is of ancient lineage dating from when $250,000 was real money.  The other is to re-separate commercial deposit-based banking from investment banking.  The repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act in 1999 is the cause of the financial crises in the 21st century.  Can economists and the neoliberal economists face up to their mistake?

PCR

01:36

Michael Hudson Agrees with me why the US banking system could break apart PaulCraigRoberts.org

Michael Hudson Agrees with me why the US banking system could break apart

I repeatedly warned that the higher interest rates were a danger not a cure.

The Fed can reverse course.  But what will the Fed do if there is a run on the dollar?

https://www.globalresearch.ca/why-us-banking-system-breaking-up-michael-hudson/5811823 

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